The governor race has been essential to democracy because the secretary of state is appointed in Pennsylvania. The good news is that the race has been shifted to likely Democratic.
Additionally, Mastriano has done little to reach out beyond his core group of supporters to try and make headway with independent voters. It’s clear at this point that Shaprio is likely to pick up a good chunk of traditionally Republican voters too who simply see Mastriano, who helped bus people to Washington on January 6, 2021, as too extreme on both abortion (he supports no exceptions) and on elections (where he would appoint a secretary of state who could upend the 2024 results).
Shapiro’s lead over Mastriano has held steady. And notably, most surveys have Shaprio above 50 percent. Again, this may not be a double-digit victory in the end. However, it is hard to see a scenario where Mastriano wins, and we don’t think a race where one nominee has yet to even go on television six weeks out is one we can consider competitive any longer. The race moves from Lean to Likely Democratic.
Pennsylvania has a sizable contingent of Republican voters who aren’t far-right supporters of Donald Trump. Attorney General Josh Shapiro has spent months appealing to these voters and campaigning against Doug Mastriano’s extremism.
Mastriano has no money. He is drawing no crowds, and his campaign is virtually invisible outside of lawn signs in the reddest counties of the state.
Republicans have dumped tens of millions of dollars of anti-Fetterman ads on the state for the Senate race, but no one is helping Mastriano, who appears to have been placed on the political raft and shoved out to sea by his party.
It will be a significant victory for democracy and a blow to Trump’s 2024 coup fantasies if Josh Shapiro is elected to be the next governor of Pennsylvania, and another sign that the worst-case scenario for the state and the nation will have been avoided.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association