For weeks, Republicans have been flooding swing states with polling showing their candidates are winning in an effort to distort and rig the polling averages.
Simon Rosenberg demonstrated how comprehensive the campaign has been:
The unprecedented GOP campaign to game/corrupt the polling averages continues. Here's how many different GOP pollsters have dropped +3/+4 R polls in each state in recent days:
OH 3 (but Cygnal has done 5 alone!)https://t.co/V2fRqhPNd0
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 3, 2022
The Republicans are rigging polls by only polling an electorate that is older, whiter, and more male than in 2018 and 2020. The pollsters in the GOP polls are surveying an electorate that looks like the demographics of the Republican Party. Thus, the polling is not representative of the composition of the current electorate as it has been in the last two elections.
Modelers like Nate Silver claim to have accounted for this effect in their modeling, but these polls create a three-fold problem. Silver’s model contains some of these distorted Republican polls, so the average is still distorted. The flood of ballots creates confusion as legitimate polls get buried beneath a cascade of manipulated polling, thus creating a perception of momentum where there is none. The result is that legitimate pollsters look like outliers based on the volume of data.
The biggest issue is that the corporate media wants drama and a close election, so they parrot the bogus poll results and use them as justification to cover the horse race.
The same party that claims that elections are rigged is trying to rig the polling so that when Democrats win, the Senate victories will look illegitimate and feed the big lie about stolen elections.
Rosenberg pointed out that only parties and candidates that are losing engage in these tactics. Republicans are trying to delegitimize polling as part of their efforts to attack democracy.
Marist recently released a series of polls showing Democrats leading in Arizona and Pennsylvania with definite and likely voters. Walker and Warnock were tied among definite voters in Georgia, and Warnock led among likely voters.
The polls are all over the map because Republicans are warping the polling averages with disingenuous polls.
The media will increase the stress level because they only care about drama driving ratings. Still, anyone who claims to know what will happen on Tuesday is either guessing or lying, as control of Congress is legitimately up for grabs.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association