New House seat ratings reveal that 68 House Republicans are now in danger of losing their jobs as 19 more seats have moved toward the Democrats.
Roll Call reported, “After the latest round of changes, Inside Elections now has 68 Republican seats rated as vulnerable compared to just 10 vulnerable Democratic seats. And there are at least a couple dozen more GOP-held seats that could develop into competitive races in the months ahead.That discrepancy in the playing field is reminiscent of previous “wave†elections. In April 2010, there were 68 vulnerable Democratic House seats and 11 vulnerable Republican seats. Republicans gained 63 seats later than year. And in May 2006, there were 42 vulnerable Republican seats and 11 vulnerable Democratic seats. Six months later, Democrats gained 30 seats.”
More than half of the races that shifted moved away from a rating of solid Republican and into a more competitive status. The states where races have changed include New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. Ten of the races have gone from a solid Republican rating to competitive. Not all of these seats will flip to the Democratic column, but the blue wave is eating away at the base of solidly Republican-held seats.
If seats that Republicans thought were safe become competitive, they will be forced to spend more money to defend more districts that they thought they would easily keep. The more money spent defending these districts, the less the GOP will have to battle for toss-up seats.
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With 68 Republican seats in play, Democrats could lose nearly two out of three competitive districts and still take back the House. The 2018 House map is shaping up to be one the grimmest looking landscapes for a political party since 2010.
The data isn’t an excuse for complacency, but a reason why Democrats and the left have to keep pushing hard. A Democratic House is visible on the horizon, but to get there Democrats have to work even harder over the next five-plus months. The path to victory is visible, but there is too much at stake for Democrats to take anything for granted.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
