Opinion: Trump Would Sound Better Wearing a Mask

Trump Insults Auto workers at Ford factory

Anyone who endures the Trump presidency understands why there’s a minimum age qualification to be president.  Trump proved, however, that chronological age doesn’t necessarily reflect the maturity that one needs to make rational decisions as the president of the United States.  Trump’s outbursts are more like that of a two-year-old having a tantrum than of a grown man in control of his emotions. read more

Oxford Economics Election Model Predicts Trump Will Lose Popular Vote

A new election model from Oxford Economics forecasts President Donald Trump will lose the popular vote in November.

An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November,” Oxford Economics said in its report.

Oxford Economics has a strong track record of predicting the outcomes of presidential elections and forecast last fall that Trump would win 55 percent of the popular vote. In April, as the coronavirus pandemic tore through the country, it forecast that Trump would win 43 percent of the popular vote.

The Oxford Economics forecast comes a day after the latest poll from Quinnipiac University, which shows that presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 11 points in the general election match-up.

The poll of more than 1,300 self-identified registered voters found that Biden enjoys an 11 point lead, 50 percent to Trump’s 39 percent.

“What does the 11 point Biden lead tell us? At best for Team Trump, it says voter confidence in President Trump is shaky. At worst for them, as coronavirus cases rise, Trump’s judgement [sic] is questioned – and November looms,” said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.

“More than two months into the coronavirus crisis in the U.S., President Trump’s job approval rating ticks lower. 42 percent of voters approve of the job President Trump is doing, while 53 percent disapprove. That’s compared to a 45 – 51 percent job approval rating he received in April, his highest ever,” the poll observes.

Poll: Biden Widens Lead Over Trump by 11 Points

According to the latest poll from Quinnipiac University, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 11 points in the general election match-up.

The poll of more than 1,300 self-identified registered voters found that Biden enjoys an 11 point lead, 50 percent to Trump’s 39 percent.

“What does the 11 point Biden lead tell us? At best for Team Trump, it says voter confidence in President Trump is shaky. At worst for them, as coronavirus cases rise, Trump’s judgement [sic] is questioned – and November looms,” said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.

“More than two months into the coronavirus crisis in the U.S., President Trump’s job approval rating ticks lower. 42 percent of voters approve of the job President Trump is doing, while 53 percent disapprove. That’s compared to a 45 – 51 percent job approval rating he received in April, his highest ever,” the poll observes.

Additionally, the poll notes that “Today, Biden receives a slightly positive 45 – 41 percent favorability rating, but this is not significantly changed from his split 43 – 43 percent favorability rating in April. President Trump has a negative 40 – 55 percent favorability rating, compared to a negative 41 – 52 percent favorability rating in April.”

Asked who would do a better job handling the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic, voters chose Biden by a sixteen-point margin, 55 – 39 percent. Voters are split over who would do a better job handling the economy, with Biden receiving 48 percent of the vote to Trump’s 47 percent.

Model That’s Correctly Predicted Popular Vote 16 Times Shows Trump Losing in Landslide

Donald Trump will lose the election in a landslide if the economy doesn’t improve. That’s the conclusion of a model that’s been extremely successful in predicting the popular vote.

The Oxford Economics model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote in 16 of the last 18 elections – though it does not predict the electoral college.

Using economic factors such as unemployment and inflation, Oxford Economics predicts former Vice President Joe Biden will sweep the popular vote with 65%.

Trump would win just 35% of the vote under this modeling. This would be a historic and humiliating defeat for an incumbent on par with William H. Taft’s loss in 1912.

Neither party has won less than 40% in a two horse race since 1972, so the model should be taken with caution. However, before the pandemic Oxford Economics had Trump winning comfortably with 55% support.

The model predicts Biden winning Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. These are all states that voted for Trump in 2016, some by wafer thin margins.

If the Oxford forecast is correct, Biden would win 328 electoral college votes, while Trump would garner just 210. Under those circumstances, the Democratic victory would be historic and substantial.

It is worth noting this is based on the popular vote as Oxford Economics does not specifically model electoral college votes.

Oxford Economics’ model was incorrect only twice: in 1968 when Richard Nixon staged the political comeback of the century, and in 1976 when Jimmy Carter surprised many by defeating incumbent Gerald Ford.

Poll after poll has

shown Biden leading Trump read more

Trump Threatens to Withhold Michigan’s Federal Funding Over Vote-by-Mail

President Donald Trump threatened to withhold Michigan’s federal funding after its Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) announced that all state residents would receive applications for absentee ballots, allowing them to vote-by-mail.

Trump and Republicans have repeatedly disparaged vote-by-mail options in response to criticisms from voting rights advocates who’ve expressed safety concerns during the coronavirus pandemic, and in a tweet earlier this morning, he alleged the step was done “illegally” and would encourage voter fraud.

“Breaking: Michigan sends absentee ballots to 7.7 million people ahead of Primaries and the General Election,” the president tweeted. “This was done illegally and without authorization by a rogue Secretary of State. I will ask to hold up funding to Michigan if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path!”

Breaking: Michigan sends absentee ballots to 7.7 million people ahead of Primaries and the General Election. This was done illegally and without authorization by a rogue Secretary of State. I will ask to hold up funding to Michigan if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path!.. read more

Poll: Obama Would Beat Trump If An Election Was Held Today

Former President Barack Obama’s popularity has endured since he left office, and the latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey obtained by Politico indicates that  54 percent of respondents would vote for Obama and 43 percent would vote for President Donald Trump if an election was held today. Only three percent of respondents said they were unsure how they’d vote.

The poll, paid for by Eric Schmeltzer, a progressive public relations consultant, is, of course, a hypothetical as Obama cannot run for office again because he’s already served two terms.

“IN RECENT DAYS, President DONALD TRUMP and his administration have reinjected BARACK OBAMA into the political fray. Privately around town, some Republicans have wondered about the wisdom of doing that, since polls consistently show that OBAMA is one of the best-liked people in public life,” according to Politico’s Playbook.

Trump lashed out at the former president last week after news outlets obtained a tape of a web talk between the former president and members of the Obama Alumni Association in which he said the “rule of law is at risk” in the United States after it emerged the Justice Department dismissed the case against former national security adviser Michael Flynn.

“The news over the last 24 hours I think has been somewhat downplayed – about the justice department dropping charges against Michael Flynn,” Obama reportedly said.

“And the fact that there is no precedent that anybody can find for someone who has been charged with perjury [in fact Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI] just getting off scot-free. That’s the kind of stuff where you begin to get worried that basic – not just institutional norms – but our basic understanding of rule of law is at risk,” he continued. “And when you start moving in those directions, it can accelerate pretty quickly as we’ve seen in other places.”

In response, Trump peddled an unsubstantiated “Obamagate” conspiracy theory, and even before that was criticized for retweeting a conspiracy theory suggesting that Obama “was the one running the Russian hoax.”

Biden Leads Trump by Seven Points in Arizona, Which Has Not Gone to a Democrat in Over 20 Years

Joe Biden evokes of Obama while dropping the hammer on Trump

The latest OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) survey finds former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by seven points (50 percent to 43 percent) in Arizona, a state that has no gone to a Democrat since Bill Clinton won it in 1996.

53 percent of Arizonians disapprove of the president compared to 45 percent who view Biden disfavorably. The majority of those who view Biden negatively (63 percent) say they’d still vote for Biden over Trump. Prior polls indicate support for Biden has grown since March; the past three OHPI polls had Biden up by between 6 and 9 points.

“President Trump is going to have to do a lot more than parachute into Arizona to boost his sagging numbers,” said OHPI chief of research Mike Noble. “With six months to go until Election Day, Trump is going to have to invest heavily in Arizona to pull out a victory in The Grand Canyon State.”

The OH Predictive Insights survey of 600 likely general election voters was conducted between May 9 and May 11 and has a 4 percentage point margin of error.

In a video message posted online yesterday, Biden took Trump to task for his response to the coronavirus pandemic, urging him to spend less time on social media.

“Trump is out there tweeting again this morning. I call him President Tweety!” he said.

In statements to the Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) Victory Fund’s progressive summit, Biden said Trump had been reacting too slowly to pressure from workers and businesses who need federal aid in light of nationwide economic shutdowns.

“How are we supposed to do that if you’re sitting on the money small businesses need in order to stay alive? Stop tweeting about it. Get the money out to Main Street now. It’s there. It’s been passed,” he said.

Opinion: Devastated by the Numbers Trump Goes Crazy with Deflection

Donald Trump is learning he can’t escape the ominous death toll resulting from decisions he made in handling Covid-19.

So this week brought on more attacks on the rule of law and a shocking level of callousness in Donald Trump.

There was that moment when he admitted that he doesn’t like testing because it gives him numbers he doesn’t like. Even with the low proportion of testing, the numbers were so devastating that we saw an even uglier version of Donald Trump lurking beneath the surface. read more

Nearly a Quarter of Republicans Think GOP Should Replace Trump as Presidential Candidate

Nearly one-in-four likely Republican voters think their party should nominate someone other than Donald Trump for president in 2020. However, most will still vote for him.

Conservative pollster Rasmussen found that 23% of Republicans believe “their party should find someone other than Trump to be their presidential nominee.”

This is a significant number considering Trump has been president for almost four years. GOP voters also tend to be loyal to their elected officials, especially presidents.

“Men feel more strongly than women that Trump is the right candidate for the GOP. Women are more likely to be undecided,” Rasmussen reports.

Likely Republican voters under 40 are more likely to think Trump should be replaced. Until recently, the President enjoyed huge support among senior citizens but Joe Biden has chipped away at this.

“Blacks and other minority voters share that view more than whites do,” the poll says.

Despite these numbers, 95% of Republicans think Trump will end up being the nominee. Possible challenges to his status from unhappy conservatives gained little traction this year.

By contrast, 28% of likely Democratic voters think their party should find a nominee other than the former vice president.

In a separate poll, Rasmussen found that just 54% of Democrats want Biden bur 92% believe he will be their nominee. It would be very difficult to replace Biden or Trump at this time.

However, it’s important to note that Rasmussen typically skews conservative and has frequently given President Trump higher than average approval ratings.

Trump has approvingly cited Rasmussen polls on many occasions, which may be cause for concern considering the latest findings. Conservatives may also be more likely to be honest with Rasmussen as a result of its popularity with the party.

Follow Darragh Roche on Twitter

Trump Congratulates GOP Candidate for Winning a Race That Hasn’t Been Called Yet

President Donald Trump took to Twitter to congratulate Republican congressional candidate Mike Garcia’s performance in a California special election. There’s just one problem: The race hasn’t been officially called yet.

“Big Congressional win in California for Mike Garcia, taking back a seat from the Democrats. This is the first time in many years that a California Dem seat has flipped back to a Republican,” the president wrote before also congratulating Republican Tom Tiffany’s win in yesterday’s Wisconsin special election.

Big Congressional win in California for Mike Garcia, taking back a seat from the Democrats. This is the first time in many years that a California Dem seat has flipped back to a Republican. Also, Tom Tiffany beat his Democrat rival BIG in Wisconsin. Two great Congressional WINS! read more