Although there were 12 Republican U.S. Senators who voted against Donald Trump in the vote last week on his emergency declaration, this doesn’t mean there is a widespread revolt in his party. In fact, what’s more revealing is to look at the senators who did NOT vote against the president, and understand why. Because it shows that Donald Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican Party is as strong as ever.
Of the 12 senators who voted to condemn Trump’s national emergency declaration, only one is running for reelection next year. And that one is Susan Collins of Maine, who is perceived as an independent by her home-state voters.
This means all of the other Republicans in the Senate who will face an election challenge in 2020 voted to support the president’s national emergency, including many who were strongly opposed to it.
Why would they do that? The answer is simple: fear.
These senators in the president’s party are afraid of one thing above all others, and that is to get “primaried.”
With up to 90% of Republican primary voters likely to be supportive of Trump, the last thing these senators can afford to do is alienate them by appearing disloyal to the president.
There are several Republicans running in swing states who would likely have benefited from voting against Trump. For example Sens. Cory Gardner (Colo.), Martha McSally (Ariz.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) all are considered “at risk” next year. They represent states where Donald Trump is not popular with the general electorate, yet in the crucial Senate vote they stuck with him.
Another good example is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
Although there are rumors that McConnell may retire next year, he still is up for reelection. And he endorsed Trump’s national emergency declaration even though he had initially warned Trump against making the move.
Republicans have little choice given how important the issue of border security is with Trump’s base of Republican voters.
One Republican strategist said:
“I think what they’ve seen is the Republican base has been energized by the issue the last couple years and it’s not going away.”