Republicans have known for more than a year that the 2026 midterm election could be bad for them. The House was going to be hard to keep, and the hope was that the GOP could turn control of the House into a partisan turnout rock fight that would let them maintain a small majority.
That hope vanished when Donald Trump juiced up inflation with tariffs, and then turbo-charged it by starting a new war in the Middle East.
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The range of seats that Democrats could win has continued to expand. The map started off with 18 swing districts that Republicans almost universally carried in 2024. That is where the baseline of a small Democratic majority started.
Since the Iran war, the number of House districts and Senate seats that Trump’s policies put in jeopardy has exploded. The map has gone from districts and Senate seats that Trump won by 5 points being up for grabs to Republicans rushing to shore up districts and states that were Trump +15 to +20.
Voter anger is the oxygen that is fueling the Democratic gains. This election is about two issues that are intertwined. Voters are most angry about corruption and costs.
Republicans are now facing a wipeout, and they are trying to get a lifeline from the party’s leadership, which is funded by billionaires.