The Biggest Sign Yet That Republicans Are Going To Lose The House

Dozens of House Republican incumbents are intending to retire after the holidays, which is the biggest sign yet that Democrats are going to take back the House.

There are a few fundamental building blocks that a political party needs to keep a majority in Congress. To maintain a majority, a party needs money, a record of accomplishment, and incumbents.

Voters are often creatures of habit.

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Congress as a whole can remain wildly unpopular, but that unpopularity often does not extend to individual members of Congress. This dynamic is how it is possible for Congress to have an approval rating of 25%-30%, but 98% of House incumbents win reelection.

Having an incumbent is usually a fairly sizable advantage in a House election.

However, incumbents aren’t stupid.

The House minority is less powerful than the Senate minority. Life in the House minority can be pretty miserable, so when incumbents sense that a wave election might be coming to sweep the majority party out of Congress, many of them tend to retire and head for the exits.

Democrats have been experiencing their own cycle of retirements, but the Democratic retirements have been different. The Democrats who are retiring are in their 70s and 80s. Democrats in the House have been in the middle of a generational change for a few years now.

What is happening to Republicans as 2025 moves into 2026 is different.

Republicans attached themselves to Trump, but the president is an unpopular boulder who is threatening to sink everyone vulnerable in the party.

The GOP sees the wave coming, and many of them are untethering from Trump and moving to higher ground.

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