Last updated on July 21st, 2023 at 05:34 pm

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Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum and Sen. Bill Nelson hold slim one, and two-point leads as the midterm election in Florida comes down to the wire.

A new CNN poll of Florida found:

In Florida’s Senate race, Bill Nelson is locked in a close race with Rick Scott, with 49% of likely voters supporting Nelson, the incumbent Democrat, and 47% behind Scott, the state’s Republican governor. The gubernatorial race is similarly divided: 49% for Democrat Andrew Gillum and 48% for Republican Ron DeSantis. In both contests, the share of likely voters who say they could change their minds in the final days of the campaign stands in single digits.

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In the new CNN poll, the decline in support for Gillum comes across demographic groups, but is sharpest among non-white voters (Gillum drops nine points among that group), those without college degrees (down seven points) and women (down six). At the same time, DeSantis appears to have consolidated support among Republicans (94% of Republican voters now support him while fewer, 88%, backed him in the previous CNN poll) and has won over some independents (47% back him now compared to 42% in the last CNN poll).

Gillum has been dealing with a vicious and racist right-wing smear campaign.

Sen. Nelson’s performance against Gov. Rick Scott has been one of the biggest surprises to me in the midterm as Sarah Jones and I discussed on the latest Politicus Pod:

Democrats are still leading in Florida, but it is close

Florida could be the center of American politics on Election Night. Where have we heard that one before? Both of these elections are razor thin close, and CNN average of polls put each of them at Democrat (+3). If Gillum and Nelson win, it won’t be by a blowout. Just like the governor’s race in Georgia, the contests in Florida are going to be close.

Waves aren’t landsides. They are a series of close elections that tip toward one party. If Florida races both go for the Democratic candidates, it will be a sign that the 2018 wave could be bigger than anticipated for Democrats.

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Jason Easley

Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.

Awards and  Professional Memberships

Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association