Democrats are expecting a field of nearly 30 presidential candidates at the start of the 2028 primary. Libertarians are already recruiting Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) as their nominee. Republicans are trapped at the mercy of Trump’s whims, as it will likely be the president who directly or indirectly chooses their nominee.
The wild card in 2028 is the progressive movement on the left. Data shows progressive candidates did not perform as well as centerists in the Democratic tsunami of 2026, but Democratic primary voters tend to be more to the left than the electorate in the general election, and with Bernie Sanders having won the economic ideology war in the Democratic Party, progressives will have a substantial say in who the Democratic presidential nominee is in 2028.
New York City Mayor Mamdani, who has quickly risen to be one of the top progressive voices in the country, is not eligible to be president, but he is a powerful force who is organizing the progressive movement for 2028.
Mamdani has been meeting privately with union leaders, urgently talking up the need for a labor-aligned or leftist candidate to run for the White House, four people familiar with the talks told Axios.
Behind closed doors, Mamdani has made a striking admission that helps explain why he’s so eager to huddle with allies about 2028: He’s uncertain whether New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, his close political partner, will launch a White House run, the sources said.
Before Democrats worry the 2026 primary will be 2016 all over again, the reporting includes an important caveat.