Poll Update: Obama Leads by 14 in Oregon

Last updated on July 1st, 2012 at 06:32 am

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A new Public Policy Polling poll of Democrats in the state of Oregon released today found that Barack Obama is enjoying a 14 point lead over Hillary Clinton. Obama leads Clinton in the state 53%-39%. Obama leads with voters in every racial category, and every age group except those over age 65.

In a little bit of a surprise, Obama has his biggest lead with voters age 30-45. He beats Clinton among this group by an almost 2 to 1 margin, 60%-33%. Obama leads among Hispanic voters, a group that he has struggled with throughout the campaign, 58%-33%. He has a small three point lead among women 48%-45%, and dominates with male voters, 60%-31%.

Unlike all other states this year, Oregon Democrats listed the Iraq war as their top issue (41%). Second was the economy and jobs (34%). Third was healthcare (11%). Obama leads Clinton 63%-31% for those who the war the top issue. Clinton does better on the economy where she only trails 48%-44%, and she leads Obama on healthcare 48%-46%.

Oregon is one of the younger demographic states in the country, so it fits into the pattern that we have seen in this race. States with lots of younger voters go for Obama. The older voter states prefer Clinton. If the superdelegates continue to flow in, a big win in Oregon would not only offset a big Clinton win in Kentucky, but might be enough to put him over the top.

Oregon is an interesting state. Although John McCain is already campaigning there for Independent voters, it looks like fertile Obama country. In most of the close primaries, voters ages 30-45 have decided the race. Early on these voters went for Clinton, but in both Indiana and Oregon we have seen them swing towards Obama. This is a good omen for the fall.

PPP Poll results:
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/PPP_oregon-polls-may10to11-2008-democrat.pdf