Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 07:11 pm
A new Pew poll on religion and the 2016 campaign revealed devastating news for Republicans as Catholic voters have shifted their support to Hillary Clinton.
According to Pew:
Currently, Clinton also holds a 17-point advantage among Catholic registered voters, driven largely by overwhelming support for Clinton among Latino Catholics. By contrast, at a similar point in the 2012 campaign, Catholics were closely divided between support for Obama (49%) and Romney (47%). Exit polls conducted on Election Day in 2012 found that Catholics ultimately split their votes between Obama (50%) and Romney (48%).
Romney had sizable edge among weekly churchgoers, who are more evenly divided in 2016The survey finds a notable shift in the voting intentions of regular churchgoers. Currently, voters who say they attend religious services at least once a week are split almost evenly; 49% say they would vote for Trump and 45% say they would vote for Clinton. At a similar point in the 2012 campaign, Romney held a 15-point advantage among weekly churchgoers.
Donald Trump has lost 11 points from Mitt Romney was with voters who attend religious services in 2012. The only polls that show Trump close or leading are coming from pollsters that use a deeply flawed methodology (Quinnipiac) or Republican-affiliated polling outlets. Credible polls are arriving at the same consensus.
Trump is not performing up to the level of Mitt Romney in 2012. Romney was easily defeated by President Obama, but he was at least competitive. The underlying dynamics that are beginning to surface in the polling suggest that there is a chance that Trump won’t be a competitive candidate by election day. Even if Trump performs poorly, political polarization might prevent him from being a total disaster, but the election is definitely an uphill climb for the Republicans.
If Trump doesn’t match Romney’s performance with religious voters, he will lose badly. Catholics and religious unaffiliated voters supported Obama by 9 points against John McCain in 2008. Hillary Clinton leads Trump by 17 Catholic voters and 42 with religiously unaffiliated voters. Should Clinton maintain these leads, the election could be a rout.
The warning signs are in the data. Donald Trump is turning off key voters, and Republicans may be in big trouble this November.
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