The Politicus Presidential Projection Map For November 5, 2016

Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:29 pm

To See President Biden's 5 Best Jokes At The White House Correspondents Dinner visit The Daily.

The presidential election is definitely shifting, but not in the direction that one party was hoping for. Here is the presidential projection map for November 5.

The baseline map:

Democrats are still set to begin election night favored to win 258 electoral votes. There continues to be no sign of Republican nominee Donald Trump making any successful inroads into Hillary Clinton’s blue firewall. What has become very consistent in this election is that Hillary Clinton’s early voting muscle is putting up several hurdles for Trump that are making his already difficult task of winning the White House nearly impossible.

Here is the best case scenario currently for Donald Trump:

Even if Trump wins Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Utah, Arizona, and Georgia, he will still lose the election to Hillary Clinton 290-247. The only polling showing Trump as competitive in blue states is coming from partisan Republican polling firms in what appears to be an effort to distort the polling models and averages. A CNN poll showing Trump doing well in Nevada appears to be an outlier, as Hillary Clinton has pretty much put the state away with record-setting early voting turnout. GOP early voting turnout in Nevada is actually worse for Trump than it was for Romney. The state looks to be lost. Trump’s best case scenario still leaves him short of winning the White House.

The closeness of contest in Georgia changes the best case scenario for Hillary Clinton:

This is the scenario where everything breaks Hillary Clinton’s way on election night. She wins Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada. The big change is that according to Nevada election expert Jon Ralston, Clinton has locked up Nevada. Trump can’t win the White House without Nevada, which is why he is campaigning in Reno on Saturday. Hillary Clinton could end up with as many as 355 electoral votes on election night. If she keeps Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire in the Democratic column, and flips North Carolina and Georgia. Realistically, this is the best map that Hillary Clinton could put together on Tuesday.

Here is the most likely scenario for election day:

The most likely scenario is that Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina and Nevada while keeping the Democratic blue states in her column. Clinton is making a strong late push in Ohio, but the Buckeye State remains one of the two most likely, along with Iowa, to flip to the Republican column. Clinton is putting up good early voting numbers in Florida, and she has led in the last three credible polls of the state by a small margin. Florida might be a coin flip, but Clinton does have a small edge.

Hillary Clinton’s electoral college range is between 290 and 320.

Hillary Clinton remains the favorite to win the White House on Tuesday. Trump doesn’t break 270 with the states that he is leading or tied in. If Trump has lost Nevada, his White House hopes may have gone with it. Trump is to the point where only a series of upsets will lead to a victory on election day. Clinton can win the presidency in multiple ways, while Trump needs a Hail Mary with the clock nearly at zero.

Note: These projections take into account polling averages, early voting statistics, and current polls. They are subject to change and will be updated daily through election day.

Jason Easley

Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.

Awards and  Professional Memberships

Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association