Pumped Up Democrats Give Doug Jones A 10 Point Lead Over Roy Moore In Election Eve Poll

Democratic enthusiasm is powering Doug Jones to a 50%-40% lead over Republican Roy Moore in the latest Fox News poll of the Alabama Senate election.

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Fox News reported on their poll, “Among just the 46 percent of Alabama voters who are “extremely” interested in the race, the Democrat’s lead widens to 53-40 percent. Jones’s lead comes mostly from nonwhites, younger voters, and women. He’s the choice of nonwhites by 76 points (83-7 percent), by 31 points among voters under age 45 (59-28), and by 20 among women (54-34). That jumps to 46 points among women under age 45 (67-21 percent). More Democrats (50 percent) than Republicans (45 percent) are “extremely” interested in the election. And more Democrats plan to vote for Jones (90 percent) than Republicans plan to vote for Moore (81 percent).”

NBC News senior political editor Mark Murray brought up an interesting point about the Fox News poll:

Unlike the vast majority of polling the Alabama race, Fox News pollsters used some solid methodology. They used traditional polling techniques (human beings calling and asking questions, no robo or internet polls). They polled landlines and cellphones, and they used a list based probability sample to target the most likely voters.

That doesn’t mean that the poll is 100% accurate. It does mean that they went the extra mile to try to collect good data. Democrats need to be aware of a Bradley Effect. It is possible that people are saying that they will vote for Doug Jones, but don’t want to admit that they are voting for Moore.

I expect a very close election on Tuesday night. It would be shocking if Doug Jones won by ten points. The polling has been all over the place, which is an indicator of a volatile election, but Democrats and Jones supporters have consistently shown that they are more engaged in this election. If their enthusiasm advantage shows up on Election Day, a Democratic win is very possible.

Jason Easley

Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.

Awards and  Professional Memberships

Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association