Hillary Clinton Maintains A 12 Point Lead Over Bernie Sanders In New York Poll

Last updated on September 25th, 2023 at 01:58 pm

To See President Biden's 5 Best Jokes At The White House Correspondents Dinner visit The Daily.

A new poll from Monmouth University shows Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by 12 points eight days before voters go to the polls in the critical New York Democratic primary.

According to the Monmouth University Poll:

Currently, 51% of likely Democratic primary voters in New York support Clinton compared to 39% who support Sanders. Another 9% do not have a candidate preference with just over a week to go before the election.

The race is basically tied among non-Hispanic white primary voters (48% for Sanders and 46% for Clinton), while Clinton enjoys a large lead among black, Hispanic and other voters (62% to 22%). Clinton holds a significant advantage among voters age 50 and older (57% to 36%), while the race is much closer among voters under 50 (45% for Clinton to 43% for Sanders).

Clinton earns similar levels of support across the state, including Manhattan and the Bronx (52%), Brooklyn and Queens (48%), Staten Island and the metro suburbs of Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and Putnam counties (51%), and upstate New York (51%). Sanders performs better upstate (44%) and in the metro suburbs (41%) than he does in Brooklyn/Queens (36%) or Manhattan/Bronx (35%). However, 13% of primary voters in these four New York City boroughs say they do not have a candidate preference.

Each of the last five polls of the Democratic primary in New York found Hillary Clinton holding a double-digit lead. The data suggests that the lack of Independents crossing over to support him is hurting Sen. Sanders. Only 54% of New York primary voters described their choice as definitely locked in. Sen. Sanders did have the higher percentage of supporters who are locked into voting for him (65%), but he has fewer supporters overall.

Voters don’t consider either Clinton (29%) or Sanders (28%) New Yorkers, so there has been no home field advantage in the state’s Democratic primary. Clinton also appears to be benefitting from the state’s voters holding a positive view of her time in the Senate. Seventy percent of those polled either gave Clinton excellent (28%) or good (42%) marks for her time representing New York in the Senate.

The fact that Sanders is trailing by 40 points with non-white voters in the state suggests that not much has structurally changed in the Democratic primary. Bernie Sanders is strongest in open caucuses and in states where white voters are the dominant demographic. Hillary Clinton runs stronger with the same coalition that President Obama won with in 2008 and 2012. Clinton’s better numbers with younger voters in New York are likely a byproduct of the closed primary.

Bernie Sanders needs a big debate performance on Thursday, because as the race currently stands, Hillary Clinton appears to be on her way to a potentially double-digit victory in New York.

Jason Easley

Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.

Awards and  Professional Memberships

Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association