These Two Critical Swing States Are Quickly Shifting Toward Hillary Clinton

X Facebook Email Flipboard Pinterest Print Reddit

As the media does their best to make this race exciting and competitive, Hillary Clinton continues to hold a clear national lead over Donald Trump. As Jason Easley wrote earlier, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the Democratic nominee trouncing Trump by 12 points.

On average, Clinton is beating the spray-tanned billionaire by more than 7 percentage points nationwide.

As solid as that lead is for Clinton, even more telling is just how poorly Trump is doing in swing states, which are a much more accurate snapshot of presidential contests.

A Roanoke survey out of Virginia today gives Clinton a massive 16-point advantage over Trump in the state. While the poll may slightly overstate her advantage, the Democratic nominee is still leading in the state by an average of 12 points.

To get more stories like this, subscribe to our newsletter The Daily.

In Florida, a state Trump absolutely cannot lose, a new St. Leo University poll gives Clinton a huge 14-point lead over Trump. Again, this shows a bigger lead than usual, but it is consistent with a recent Monmouth poll that shows Clinton ahead there 9 points.

While Clinton still polls strongly nationally, the polling out of these critical battleground states often shows her with even bigger leads. This is good news for Clinton because state polling is usually more predictive than national polling.

As Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight.com tweeted Tuesday:

Today’s numbers indicate that Virginia and Florida could be slipping out of Trump’s reach, and with them Trump’s chances of being elected.

Removing these two states, particularly Florida, from the list of battlegrounds doesn’t just make the Republican nominee’s path to victory narrow – it makes it virtually nonexistent.

Sean Colarossi

Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.