New FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Democrats Favored To Win Back The Senate

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Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:13 pm

All the focus is currently fixed on the presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump with less than 50 days to go until the general election, but there is also a contentious battle going on for control of the United States Senate.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast, which launched on Tuesday, Democrats are slightly favored to win back the upper chamber of Congress.

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According to Nate Silver’s forecast, Democrats are likely to pick off five Senate seats currently held by Republicans: Wisconsin (94 percent chance of Democrat winning), Illinois (78 percent), Indiana (74 percent), Pennsylvania (57 percent) and New Hampshire (57 percent).

FiveThirtyEight also predicts that Democrats have a 54 percent chance of holding Harry Reid’s seat in Senate, although that race is too close to call.

Two other races to watch are in North Carolina and Missouri, where some polls show the Democratic candidates surging ahead of the Republican incumbents.

In a way, the race for control of the Senate is similar to the contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. There are a lot of close races, but the map is much friendlier for Democrats than it is for Republicans.

Still, it’s critical that Democratic voters turn out to cast their ballot for their Senate candidate – either to help a potential President Clinton advance her agenda or stop a Trump administration from blowing up the world.

This year’s Senate races are more important than ever.

Sean Colarossi

Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.