The Pete Buttigieg Surge Is Real As He Jumps To Third Place In Iowa And New Hampshire

Last updated on September 25th, 2023 at 02:10 pm

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Former Vice President Joe Biden has expanded his lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in two early-voting primary states, according to two polls released from Iowa and New Hampshire on Thursday.

According to Monmouth University, 27 percent of caucusgoers in Iowa support Biden, while Sanders has the support of 16 percent of Democrats in the state.

Biden’s share of support among Iowa caucusgoers is particularly impressive given the number of candidates included in the poll – 24 declared and undeclared.

The numbers indicate that the former vice president’s lead in the first caucus state is expanding, not shrinking. An Emerson poll released last month actually had Biden and Sanders in a virtual tie.

In New Hampshire, a state that should be more favorable ground for Sanders, Biden also has a lead. According to a St. Anselm poll, the former VP is ahead of Sanders 23 to 16 percent.

The polling is the clearest sign yet that the non-controversy surrounding Biden’s physical style of retail politics hasn’t really taken hold anywhere outside of cable news and the Twitter bubble.

If and when Joe Biden jumps into the 2020 race, he will be in a strong position. The question that remains is whether he can maintain that status as more candidates become widely introduced to voters.

Pete Buttigieg is surging – and he has room to keep climbing

One of those candidates who is already shaking up the primary race is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. While Biden and Sanders typically sit atop most Democratic primary polls, Buttigieg is surging into third place for the first time.

In the Monmouth poll from Iowa, the mayor jumped over candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris to land just seven points behind Bernie Sanders for the second place slot.

In St. Anselm’s poll of New Hampshire, Buttigieg did the same thing, leaping to within five points of Sanders.

While this could be a temporary surge as more Democratic voters get to know him, there are also indications that Buttigieg’s momentum could continue, particularly in Iowa.

“Buttigieg’s current standing in the horse race is impressive given that nearly half of likely Democratic caucusgoers have yet to form an opinion of him,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “He has one of the best positive to negative ratios in the field. He could move up if he is able to maintain that rating as he introduces himself to more voters.”

While it’s still too early to predict where these numbers will shake out once Democratic voters finally weigh in next year, one thing is for sure: Pete Buttigieg is no longer the longshot candidate he thought he would be.

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Sean Colarossi

Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.