Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 11:27 am

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A new poll shows that Joe Biden will begin his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination with an eight-point lead over Trump.

According to the Morning Consult/POLITICO poll:
Biden leads the president by eight percentage points in a hypothetical matchup, 42 percent to 34 percent. Biden has a significant edge over Trump among women (17 points), millennials (22 points) and independents (10 points).

Trump’s garnering roughly one-third of the vote in the early head-to-head test pales in comparison to that of the last incumbent president: At this point in the 2012 election cycle, then-President Barack Obama led Republican Mitt Romney by several points, polling consistently in the mid-to-high 40s, even after the 2010 tea party wave and backlash to the Affordable Care Act.

Joe Biden Virtually Wipes Out Trump’s Advantage With Men

Men, especially older white men, are the backbone of Donald Trump’s support. However, Trump only leads Biden 41%-38% among men. Biden crushes Trump with women 45%-28%. Biden leads Trump with Generation Z 44%-14%, with Millenials 47%-25%, and Generation X 41%-34%. The only group that Trump leads with are Baby Boomers, but barely, 41%-38%.

If Biden can cut into Trump’s advantage with men, Democrats would be in a position to take back the White House. Beyond the usual disclaimer that it is way too early for any polling to matter, the one valid point that can be made is that Donald Trump begins his reelection campaign in the weakest position of any incumbent president since George H.W. Bush in 1992.

Trump has spent his presidency catering to his base, so there is little upside where he can pick up additional support in an election against Biden. Before any of this can matter, Joe Biden must first win the Democratic nomination, but straight out of the gate, former vice president Biden could present a matchup nightmare for Trump in the fall of 2020.

It is early, but voters are signaling a willingness to dump Trump in 2020.

Jason Easley

Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.

Awards and  Professional Memberships

Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association