A new poll released by Roanoke College on Tuesday shows that the GOP is in serious trouble in their bid to take the White House in 2016. The poll was done in New York, New Jersey and Virginia. While, predictably, New York and New Jersey both showed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton well in the lead, the results for Virginia were a little surprising and have to be discouraging for Republicans.
The poll revealed that in matchups with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, Clinton is well in the lead against all three. Considering that Virginia is a ‘swing’ state, and the GOP needs to flip at least a few states in 2016 to have a chance, this doesn’t bode well for them. Against the embattled Christie, Clinton holds a solid eight-point lead, 48-40. Against Tea Party darling Paul, her lead widens to 14 points. Ryan also trails by double-digits, 51-40.
The poll also shows that Christie, while still relatively popular in his home state despite his recent troubles, would still get beat soundly there if he faced off against Clinton. While Christie fared much better in Jersey than either Paul or Ryan, he still trails Clinton by 10 points, 51-41. Paul trails by 29 and Ryan by 25 points. In New York, no GOP candidate comes within 33 points of Mrs. Clinton.
Clinton’s favorability rating is quite high in Virginia, and far ahead of these three potential GOP candidates. 56% of Virginia residents hold a favorable view of the former First Lady, compared to 28% who see her negatively. Meanwhile, Christie is pretty much net-neutral on favorability in the state, with 38% seeing him positively while 37% have an unfavorable view of him. Paul is slightly net-negative with Virginia residents, as he’s at 32% favorable against 36% negative. 40% of Virginians see Ryan in a positive light while 32% do not like him personally.
This poll seems to compare favorably with recent polls in battleground states that show Clinton is well in command. While still obviously early, it has to be frustrating for the GOP to see the Democrats with a solid candidate in place with high visibility and who is generally well-liked. Meanwhile, they have NO idea who they might be running at this point. They don’t even have 2 or 3 potential favorites. It is a complete crap shoot at this point.
Currently, the GOP is in the same situation as 2012 in regards to electoral votes, if not worse. President Obama won by 126 electoral votes and he lost two states from the election before (North Carolina and Indiana.) It is possible, at this point, that Clinton could pick up North Carolina again and maybe even another one or two. States like Georgia, Missouri or Arizona have the potential to flip, especially for a strong candidate like Clinton.
Unless, the GOP somehow gets Clinton not to run, or finds some magical candidate that energizes the nation for them, they have almost no chance iat winning in 2016. Hillary Clinton as the 2016 Democratic candidate makes it nearly a foregone conclusion that the White House stays Blue.