Democrat Conor Lamb has a 51% to 45% lead over Republican Rick Saccone in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District which will take place tomorrow, according to a just-released Monmouth University Poll.
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Previous polls have shown the candidates in a virtual dead heat, so this latest poll may be a sign that the 33 year-old Lamb has broken away from his older Republican opponent and may be headed for a victory. If Lamb wins it will set the national Republican establishment on its heals, while it will give the Democrats more momentum and optimism heading into the midterm elections which are just eight months away.
One major finding of the poll is the negligible impact that President Trump’s steel tariffs are expected to have on the election. Expected voters are split nearly equally on whether or not the steel tariffs will help the local economy, hurt it, or have no impact. However, just a small number of Pennsylvania 18th district voters indicate that the tariffs will influence their vote in tomorrow’s election. Over 96% of likely voters say that Trump’s tariff announcement will have no impact on their votes.
One caveat about the poll results is the assumption it makes about voter turnout. Other special elections which have taken place since November 2016 have seen massive surges in turnout among Democrats. The Monmouth poll assume there will be similar voting patterns tomorrow in favor of Lamb, and thus are predicting a clear victory for the novice former prosecutor.
“This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
One very telling result from the poll is the difference between the two candidates’ favorability ratings. Lamb earns a net positive, 53% favorable and 33% unfavorable rating from likely voters. Saccone on the other hand is at just 47% favorable and 43% unfavorable. This is the kind of big difference that can translate into votes.
Another caveat is that most of the interviews for this poll were conducted before President Trump made an appearance Saturday night at a rally for Saccone where he went off the rails, rambled on and on, and talked mostly about himself.
“Voters are divided on the potential impact of tariffs. It doesn’t seem that the president’s gambit paid off in this race if that was his intent. But the poll was largely conducted before Trump’s rally Saturday night and we don’t have a clear picture of what impact that might hold. A Saccone victory is still well within the poll’s margin of error, especially if a Democratic surge does not materialize in the Pittsburgh suburbs,” said Murray.
The district’s electorate continues to be divided over which party they prefer to see in control of Congress, with an even split between the Democrats (42%) and the Republicans (42%).
“When added to a potential Democratic surge that has been building for weeks, Lamb appears to have picked off enough Republican-leaning voters to take a lead going into this contest’s final weekend. It would mark an extraordinary swing from Trump’s nearly 20 point victory here in 2016 if he could hold on to win,” said Murray.
I am a lifelong Democrat with a passion for social justice and progressive issues. I have degrees in writing, economics and law from the University of Iowa.
