A new PPP poll of the Massachusetts Senate race has found that support for Elizabeth Warren has swung seven points in the past month, and she now leads Scott Brown 48%-46%.
The PPP poll found that Elizabeth Warren has gone from trailing Scott Brown by five points last month (49%-44%) to now leading Sen. Brown by two points (48%-46%). Warren has gained eight points among Democrats in the past month. The Democrat has seen her advantage with her own party go from 73%-20% to 81%-13%. Although 29% of Democrats approve of Scott Brown, the incumbent’s reelection chances are being harmed by the fact that 53% of those polled want Democrats to control the Senate. Only 36% want Republicans to retake the Senate majority.
The race is split along gender lines. Warren dominates with women, 56%-36% with women, but trails, 39%-55% with men. Undecideds in this poll went for Obama by a margin of 76-2. Scott Brown’s approval rating is at 55% and he is popular with Democrats, but he may end up being sunk by the unpopularity of his own party.
Brown is the rare 2012 US senator who has support across the political spectrum in the state, but there is an Obama wave coming to Massachusetts in November, and the unpopularity of former governor Mitt Romney may be a weight too heavy for the incumbent Republican to carry.
The PPP poll confirms what a Western New England University Polling Institute poll released earlier in the day that found an even bigger swing towards Elizabeth Warren. The Survey of Bay State Voters found Warren leading Brown, 50%-44%. Among registered voters Warren leads 53%-41%. The poll also found Warren leading with Democrats 89%-6%.
There is some speculation that Warren is benefiting from the prime time address she delivered ahead of Bill Clinton at the Democratic convention. Warren is also being helped by the fact that as Election Day draws near, Democrats are coming home to their party.
The Brown/Warren contest has been close all summer, but President Obama’s popularity in the state combined with the fact that a majority of Massachusetts voters don’t want a Republican controlled Senate could spell doom for the incumbent.
Scott Brown is facing a top notch Democrat in a blue state for the seat that used to be occupied by the late Ted Kennedy. When you throw in Mitt Romney, and the complete implosion of the national Republican Party, it is easy to see why momentum and outside factors may end up favoring Elizabeth Warren on Election Day.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association