Clearly Biased Polls Being Sold As Fact To Discourage Voters From Voting For Alison Grimes

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Grimes McConnell debate

Rasmussen released a poll of the Kentucky Senate race that showed Mitch McConnell leading Alison Lundergan Grimes 52%-44%. Here is why the poll is another piece of propaganda that is designed to discourage Democrats from voting for Grimes.

The Rasmussen poll that has Mitch McConnell leading Alison Lundergan Grimes by eight points comes with more than a few statistical red flags that should give anyone who bothered to look some serious cause for concern. Rasmussen poll gave Mitch McConnell a positive job approval rating of a net (+2) 49%/47%. The same poll gave Grimes an unfavorable rating of a net (-4) 46%/50% For the last few years, Mitch McConnell has been one of the least popular senators in the country, so any poll that shows McConnell with a positive approval rating is clearly oversampling Republicans.

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The Rasmussen poll also has Mitch McConnell getting 24% support from Democrats. For the sake of comparison, the insanely biased Fox News poll that had McConnell up by four points has the incumbent getting 12% Democratic support. It is clear that Rasmussen built McConnell’s eight-point advantage in their poll by doubling the Republican’s level of Democratic support.

In both 2010 and 2012, Rasmussen was at the bottom of 538’s pollster rankings because of their high margin of error, and Republican bias. Rasmussen has had a margin of error as high as six points, and they have maintained a four-point bias towards Republicans.

The problem with Rasmussen is that they don’t poll cell phone users. Instead of polling cell users, they use an online panel and landline phones to compile their data. The problem with not polling cell phone only users is that the poll leaves out younger voters who are more likely to support Democrats.

It is safe to conclude that the Rasmussen Reports poll of the Kentucky Senate race is another in a string of recent polls from Republican biased pollsters who are trying to discourage Democratic turnout while influencing the polling models. A close examination of the recent data leads to the suspicion that Republican pollsters have increased the level of bias in their polling in order to negate the built in bias subtraction of the polling models. For example, if 538 calculates a four point Republican bias, the pollster responds with a poll that contains a 6-8 point level of bias, so that their favored candidate still leads and the polling result influences the average of all polls.

The Rasmussen poll is a bad poll from a Republican pollster with a history of being inaccurate and wrong. The Senate election in Kentucky is going to be close. The deciding factor will be turnout and the impact of the Grimes ground game. Media members who write a story giving these Republican polls legitimacy are committing journalist malpractice. Members of the media don’t need to be polling experts, but it would be nice if the could tell the difference between a good poll and a bad poll. The Rasmussen poll is a very bad poll.

The numbers can be shaped to lie. Mitch McConnell is a lot closer to losing his seat than he is to leading by eight points.

43 Replies to “Clearly Biased Polls Being Sold As Fact To Discourage Voters From Voting For Alison Grimes”

  1. Simple enough. Just ignore Rasmussen’s clear and present danger of being a right wing ass kisser and vote for Grimes.

  2. Still hope Dems whomp that ol troll and gives him his walking papers.
    It won’t be the same in DC no matter who goes there in 2015..

  3. If anyone is naive enough to base voting on polls, you need your head checked. The only actual poll that counts is the one counting up the percentage of actual VOTES for each candidate! So VOTE Democratic Party and run the TPGOPers out of every city,county,state and federal office. They are the true Terrorists that are destroying America from within.

  4. remember to vote out the “cheaters, liars, do nothings, obstructers, repealers, want to take away women’s rights, want to take away your entitlements, want to kill health insurance, minimum wage increase, hate the middle class, etc – vote smart.

  5. No pollster called me either. I wish they would call me and ask which one is cuter. Allison is a lot better looking than Mitch. If they called to ask which one looks most like a turtle, I wouldn’t lie I would have to say Mitch, because he does. If Mitch gambled everything on getting rid of the healthcare plan everyone in Kentucky likes, how stupid do you have to be to vote for the man who vows to get rid of your insurance?

  6. What is he: 50? 50+ and unemployed — must be nice to collect unemployment, food stamps, Medicaid, Kinect. I’m sure he’ll find many other things to pocket.

  7. The polls for the Senate race between McConnell/Grimes has been inaccurate for months, that’s why I don’t pay any attention to them. What I find particularly galling is that Huffpo, TPM, Liberaland, Daily Kos, and MSNBC actually use these polls!
    Just last week I caught Ed Schultz using a poll that showed the race between Grimes/McConnell race had McConnell winning 39-52. McConnell hasn’t hit 50% in two years! And the polling data was from a GOP operative!
    Rasmussen is always inaccurate. So is NBC/WSJ, and Quinnpac. Since I am in KY, I have a better feel for what is accurate than some poll taker in, say, Colorado. All this means is Alison is winning, just as I have said for months.

  8. He has to go. His leadership and lies, has caused major blockage in congress. Kentucky need to vote the old …out. come into the twenty-first century. Vote Grimes.

  9. There is the Poll cheat and then there is the real cheat that the Republicans are famous for of election tampering, see Ohio results in 2004 Presidential election.
    Since the United States no longer punishes white collar criminals, we’ll just slide down the old sewer.

  10. It’s funny how ALL media ignored Ramussen poll for whole 1 1/2 yr.. & in that time they’ve have Pres. tracking poll (like gallup) & P. Obama job approval rating run btw 47 –> 48/50%. But yet, they said nothing. Yet, if it doom for the dems./Pres. it’s worthy of 24 hr. news cycle.
    Well here another dem running in the South (GA)
    Nunn on that same ques.. https://twitter.com/TPM/status/523210339497037825/photo/1
    Pay attn. Grimes.. GOTV 2014

  11. I smell scandal here. Perhaps Politico should investigate who’s paying whom at these pollsters, and find-out if corporate money is being used to influence pollsters to buy-into pro-corporate Mitch. Mitch means money, and I’ve never seen such soft-pedaling an agenda ever in my life.

    As for Grimes, it’s time for her to steal Mitch’s legs and get down and boogie on his corpse.

  12. folks, this is what pure, unadulterated desperation looks like. the republicans thought dems would not turn out to vote this midterm. as rick perry would say… oops! now it is too late for the GOP and all they can do is use fear tactics and try to demoralize and suppress the democratic turnout on November 4th. don’t fall for the republican scam. they are in big trouble and they know it!!! like when fox news said the dems were pulling out of Kentucky and giving up cause grimes is a goner- complete and utter bullsh*t and a total lie. nobody pulled out, and grimes is still neck and neck with McConnell. the only way republicans can win elections is by deceiving, scaring, cheating, and lying their asses off. America is not buying it this time!!! all of these races will be close, even in the deep south. your vote is important. the rightwing clowns will be served a huge platter of cold, hard reality on November 4th as dems keep the senate!! get out and vote against these rightwing monsters!

  13. I’m new to Kentucky and I’ve always watched in the news how the voters here knuckled down to McConnell and his bullying. I always wondered what he held over these people to leep being elected.. Now I know… He just needed some one tough enough to stand up to him and tell the citizens of Ky what a no good thief he is… WOW! The voters finally have some one who they can count on to do an honest days work in D. C. for them and they are hard at work for her… It’s wonderful to see this state finally finding a political life with a wonderful lady in Allison Grimes who will tend to the states business with the dignity of a true professional.. Good Luck Ms. Grimes.. Good Luck Kentucky. You BOTH deserve it…

  14. Mitch McConnell has sucked enough blood from the American people. Let him go get a job with his skeevy friends, the Kochs..I’m sure they can find something for him to do..like wipe their ass.

  15. Go Allison! She may not be that bright, but any light you can get when it’s totally dark is better than nothing. I just hope she’s not a Joe(turn-coat)Lieberman type of democrat. And being racially prejudice in today’s America is not helpful either, but whatever. Mitch is so far out of touch that anybody who’d vote for him has to be totally out of touch with reality. Kentucky deserves much, much better.

  16. If he wins, it will be from cheating. Voters around parts of the state that I have been to are fired up and ready. I have over 1 thousand people on FB friends list. I live in a solid red county, even most of the Republicans on my list are voting against Mitch, the gun stroking hardliners aren’t though, and you can’t throw facts at them to prove otherwise. But even they say Alison is a 2nd amendment Democrat, so maybe.

  17. when I get republican junk mail I black out my name/address and write “return to sender”. don’t care whether they get it or the mail carrier trashes it.

  18. I live in Kentucky, and had a polster call. The first question they asked was who I planned to vote for, after that they asked such incredibly odd questions that you would have had to have a lobotomy to answer any other way but how they were leading. I stopped the guy after a couple of questions, and asked if this was a McConnell survey. He actually said yes! I told him we could just end it now. Then he asked who I planned to vote for. What an asshat! I told him Grimes.

  19. I pray that the good people of Wisconsin are not stupid enough to vote for Walker again? Look at it this way. If you knew that Scott Walker were really black man passing for white, would you have voted for him the first time? LOL

  20. I pray that the good people of Wisconsin are not stupid enough to vote for Walker again? Look at it this way. If you knew that Scott Walker was really a black man passing for white, would you have voted for him the first time? LOL

  21. Hillary was here Wednesday, and they just announced Bill will be here next week again. Take a poll after that.
    We’re going put Mitch out to pasture!

  22. First of all Rasmussen is a friend of Karl Rove and Roger Ailes whose polls have been way off for years and only near election reflects better numbers. That said there is a problem in polling as a lot of us have left the GOP for Indy or Dem and it is not being reflected in the polling as they are using old numbers for breakout of party causing polls are to be inaccurate. In some states with libertarians or indy’s on the ballot, they are not putting them in the polling like in FL Governor’s race. Polls are scewed in favor of the GOP big time IMHO. Still getting all the GOP robocalling, mailouts, and now a registered Dem. Most of the people I know who worked GOP campaigns are no longer GOP — party went too far hard right.

  23. This KY democrat is certainly going to show Yertle McTurtle the door next month, justme! I’ve been voting against him since he first surfaced in local politics back in the 70’s. I was running camera at the Louisville NBC affiliate when he surfaced on a local show spotlighting up and coming KY politicians of both parties. Standing behind the camera back then, I took an instant dislike to him. His performances in government have only enhanced that initial reaction.

  24. Inez, I got an email from the Tea Party once. First I made sure that the email didn’t say “do not reply to this email…etc.” because it was automated. It did not say that.

    I replied and said, Do NOT ever send me another email because you are everything that is wrong with this country.”

    I never received another email. Might try that, it worked for me.

  25. As much as I would love to the the Turtle go down, I would say – from an outsider’s perspective – that his main reason for having a better chance of winning is Grimes’ refusal to go to the mat over Mconnell’s absurd claims about health care reform (which many Kentuckians appear to love), jobs, the economy, and so on. Mitch is getting away with being lazy, inconsistent, and constantly self-contradictory because he is not being challenged on the glaring weak spots that make up his desultory record as a senator.

    Ms. Grimes, please take off the gloves.

  26. If Kentucky Democrats are persuaded not to vote for Grimes because of a Rasmussen poll, they deserve six more years of McTurtle.

  27. It’s REALLY hard for me to say
    Rasmussen Poll with a straight face.
    It’s like Fox citing a Fox Poll.
    First of all, they would NEVER even
    mention the “results” of these “Polls”
    if they weren’t in their favor. They
    simply use these “poll results” to keep their viewers convinced they’re right!

    Meanwhile, the truth is,

    After the 2010 midterm elections,Nate Silver concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver’s model.
    (IOW, complete B.S.)

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