A new large sample poll of youth voters shows Biden leading Trump by double digits among registered and likely youth voters, with the President’s lead skyrocketing if Trump is criminally convicted.
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If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump). When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults 18-29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16 percent undecided.
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A guilty verdict in any of former President Trump’s trials could significantly impact the youth vote. If Trump is found guilty, we find that:
- Biden’s lead among all young Americans increases from 8 to 18 points;
- Biden’s lead among young registered voters increases from 13 to 21 points;
- Biden’s lead among young likely voters increases from 19 to 28 points.
The corporate media polling showing Trump leading with young voters was wrong, and it shows how far off base these corporate media funded polls have been. When Cornell West, Jill Stein, and RFK Jr. were included in the poll, President Biden still led with young voters, so there is no scenario where Donald Trump is leading with young voters.
A Trump criminal conviction will be devastating to Republican hopes in November. Elections are never over until the votes are counted, but the one consistency in all polling across all demographics is that a Trump criminal conviction appears to render him unelectable.
Donald Trump just like Truth Social stock has been over inflated.
Reality is beginning to set in for both.
Young voters aren’t going to vote for Donald Trump, but the Biden campaign must motivate them, and show those with concerns why the President deserves their votes in 2024.
However, there is not some youth vote migration toward Trump. If anything, the youth vote could end any hope that Trump has of returning to the White House.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
