A new poll shows that the presidential election has reset to where it was before the conventions, which means that Hillary Clinton is winning, and Donald Trump is losing.
According to the latest Morning Consult Poll:
The former secretary of State leads the brash businessman, 43 percent to 40 percent, in a new Morning Consult survey taken in the days following the DNC gathering. It’s a 7-point swing from the previous poll, in which Trump surged to a 4-point lead following the Republican National Committee’s convention in Cleveland. Almost one in five voters (17 percent) remain undecided.
Part of Clinton’s gains can be attributed to her increased support from independent voters and men. In the new poll, Clinton leads Trump by one point, 43 percent to 42 percent, among men. Last week, Trump beat Clinton by 8 points among men. She also picked up four points from independent voters compared with last week’s poll, but almost one-third (30 percent) of respondents are still undecided in the race.
The youngest voters back Clinton overwhelmingly, with 53 percent of millennials backing her over just one-fourth who support Trump. Voters 65 or older back Trump by a similar margin: 52 percent to 34 percent.
When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is included in the poll, Clinton’s lead grows to 5 points (46%-41%). Trump’s “lead” in the presidential election didn’t last a week. Because of the deep partisan divides in the country, it would not be surprising if the 2016 election turned out to be a replay of 2012.
A 4-5 point popular vote win would be the new normal. Only two presidential elections in the past 20 years have been decided by more than 4 points. Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2008 both beat their Republican opponents by 8 points. It is likely that if Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 election, her margin of victory will fall somewhere between 3 and 8 points.
The weakness of Trump’s candidacy is highlighted by the fact that he consistently remains closer to 40% support than 50% support. Trump is a weaker candidate than Mitt Romney was at this point in 2012, and while the Republican nominee claims that he is winning, the numbers behind this election have remained stable and point to Hillary Clinton in the lead.
Hillary Clinton is winning, but not by much, which is why Democrats are going to have to work their hearts out if they want to see her elected to the White House in November.