Elizabeth Warren Surges To 2nd As Kamala Harris Falls To 4th In New Poll

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A new poll taken before the second Democratic debate shows Joe Biden still leading nationally, but Elizabeth Warren has moved to second, and Kamala Harris has fallen to fourth.

Elizabeth Warren Is Rising Nationally

Here are the numbers from the latest weekly Economist/YouGov poll:

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The interesting element to Sen. Warren’s rise is that she hasn’t had that big national moment to give her a polling bump. She has been consistent or slightly increasing as the campaign has moved along. Sen. Harris’ first debate bump has faded, which means that she needs another big night at the second debate. Sen. Sanders is still stuck in that 13%-18% range nationally as the variety of other candidates in the field appears to have put a ceiling on his support. Former vice president Biden’s numbers have come back down to Earth a bit, but he still has the broadest base of support of any candidate.

3 Important Caveats About National Polling

National polling doesn’t mean much as far as eventual winning and losing. It gives a snapshot of voter perception and momentum, but it will be voters in early voting states who set the momentum for this primary contest. The field is very static in national polls. Harris, Warren, and Biden all swap second third and fourth, but no consistent order has emerged in these polls, which is a sign that it is still very early in the process. Not all national polls are equal. The Economist/YouGov Poll of Democrats tends to lean a bit more progressive, and it is a bit more sensitive to bounces, so it, like every other poll done at that this time, should be taken with a grain of salt.

Both Warren and Sanders had good debates on the first night in Detroit, so it will be interesting if next week’s polling holds any changes.

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