The 2020 map has gone from bad to worse for Trump as the president has a net negative approval rating in eight crucial swing states.
According to the latest Morning Consult Trump tracker, here is how the president is doing in the swing states:
– New Hampshire: 40% approval, 57% disapproval (-17 net approval)
– Wisconsin: 41% approval, 55% disapproval (-14)
– Michigan: 42% approval, 54% disapproval (-12)
– Iowa: 43% approval, 54% disapproval (-11)
– Nevada: 43% approval, 54% disapproval (-11)
– Pennsylvania: 45% approval, 52% disapproval (-7)
– Arizona: 45% approval, 52% disapproval (-7)
– Ohio: 45% approval, 51% disapproval (-6)
– North Carolina: 48% approval, 49% disapproval (-1)
– Florida: 48% approval, 49% disapproval (-1)
– Georgia: 49% approval, 47% disapproval (+2)
– Texas: 51% approval, 45% disapproval (+6)
Those are some dire numbers. Wisconsin and Michigan might already be gone for Trump. The trade war is killing Trump in Iowa. People need to pay more attention to what is happening in Iowa. The trade war is forcing struggling farmers out of business, and if Joe Biden is the nominee, a state that Obama won twice, could be ripe for the taking. Arizona is the other state to keep an eye on. Arizona is moving closer to blue, and 2020 could be the year that it flips.
Trump is obsessed with Pennsylvania, but the Keystone State may be a lost cause for him if Biden is the Democratic nominee, because voters in Pennsylvania love nothing more than voting for one of their own. Plus, Biden has been laying the groundwork in Pennsylvania for years and years. All those trips to PA in the last decade weren’t just to hang out in one of the nation’s great places.
There are a lot of potential Democratic paths in 2020, but let’s look at two.
Here is what happens if Democrats win Iowa, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio, but lose all of the other swing states where Trump’s approval rating is even or positive:
In our second map, the conditions stay the same, but Trump wins Pennsylvania and Ohio:
As you can see, even if Trump carries Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, he could still lose the election.
Trump’s margin of error is zero. If things don’t go exactly like the 2016 election, he will be voted out of office in 2020.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association