A new poll of Utah shows Donald Trump holds just a three-point lead over Joe Biden in a state that has not voted for a Democratic president in 56 years.
The UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2 News survey found:
Republican Donald Trump leading presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden by just 3 points, 44-41 percent. 8 percent of likely voters say they would support a third-party candidate. 5 percent were undecided while 1 percent picked another candidate.
The “gender gap” in our poll is huge as male voters in Utah are much more supportive of the president than women voters. Trump leads Biden among men 51-35 percent, but trails Biden among women voters 47-37 percent. If you add the 16 point lead for Trump among men, and Biden’s 10 point lead among women, you get a 24 point gender gap.
Where Trump runs into trouble is among independent voters and political moderates. Biden leads Trump by 10 points among true independent voters, 38-28 percent. Moderates back Biden over Trump 53-19 percent.
No red state in the country has much visceral dislike for Donald Trump as Utah. Trump has never been popular in Utah. He only got 45.5% of the vote against Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016, and his support looks to be dropping in 2020.
Joe Biden is the kind of nominee who could pull an upset in Utah. Biden is a moderate person of faith who is regarded as a high character individual. If Biden can cut into Trump’s support with men by a few points, he could win the state.
Trump has only hurt himself with his constant attacks on the extremely popular Sen. Mitt Romney. Trump’s inability to get past Romney voting to convict him on one article of impeachment could cost him the election.
If Joe Biden win’s Utah, Trump’s presidency and Mitch McConnell’s Senate majority are likely over.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association