There are a number of different ways Joe Biden could defeat Donald Trump in the 2020 election. The most two likely scenarios, however, include the Democratic hopeful winning in Florida or in Pennsylvania.
According to a number of different national polls, Biden is up in both states. Florida is tricky, though, and Democrats have been burned by the sunshine state on a number of occasions.
So the Biden campaign had to be happy on Monday to see the results of the most recent NY Times/Sienna poll. The survey showed Biden up by 9% in Pennsylvania.
The Democrat is now holding commanding polling advantages in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump narrowly won these 3 states in the 2016 election. If Biden holds the states won by Clinton in 2016 and wins these 3 states as well, he would win the election.
Elections expert Nate Silver explained that capturing these 3 states would also give Biden some breathing room if Trump is able to flip a state won by Democrats back in 2016.
“Small-ish thing, but note that Biden could lose Nevada if he’s doing well with white voters in the North and wins back MI/PA/WI,” he wrote. “Maps like these are not too crazy.”
Small-ish thing, but note that Biden could lose Nevada if he's doing well with white voters in the North and wins back MI/PA/WI. Maps like these are not too crazy. pic.twitter.com/xchuztg8OX
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 28, 2020
In addition to Pennsylvania, there are a number of states that Biden could capture that went for Trump in 2016. The former Vice-President is also polling well in states like Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and the aforementioned Florida.