Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 12:16 pm
Trump’s own advisers think that he is going to lose to Joe Biden and take Senate Republicans down with him.
Three senior Trump advisers who recently talked to campaign manager Bill Stepien walked away believing he believes they will lose.
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The Trump campaign is filled with internal blaming and pre-spinning of a potential loss, accelerating a dire mood that’s driven by a daily barrage of bleak headlines, campaign, and White House officials tell me.
“A lot of this is the president himself,” one adviser said. “You can’t heal a patient who doesn’t want to take the diagnosis.”
Stepien is publicly saying the right things about Trump winning the election, but privately, the Trump campaign is counting on winning Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Iowa and Maine’s second congressional district as their baseline.
If Trump loses any of these states, he is knocked out and it is game over. It should be noted that Trump is currently tied or losing in all of these states and Maine’s second congressional district.
The Trump campaign has laid out three paths to victory. On top of winning the states listed above they also need to win Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden currently has solid leads in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and narrowly leads in North Carolina.
The other two scenarios are even more remote. In scenario two, Trump would have to win Arizona, North Carolina, and Michigan. Biden’s lead has been solid and consistent in Michigan.
The third option borders on fantasy with Trump winning North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada.
Basically, Trump has one plausible path to victory. He has to win Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Maine’s second congressional district, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona. The odds of Trump winning all of these states where he currently leads in none of them are not good.
Unlike 2016, Trump is saddled with a record and pandemic that he can’t run from. Trump also doesn’t have an opponent who is unpopular and mired in scandal.
Until all the votes are counted the possibility remains that Trump could win, so Democrats should not let up, but even Trump’s own staff sees current the writing on the wall.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
