Nearly 60% of Registered Voters Think President Obama Will Win Reelection

A new Pew Research Center survey of registered voters found that 59% think President Obama will defeat Mitt Romney in November, and 68% believe he would beat Rick Santorum.

The Pew Research Center survey found that despite the fact that he is pulling ahead of Rick Santorum nationally, the bruising Republican primary is causing Mitt Romney to lose ground to the president. Obama’s lead has grown five points in the last month and he now has a 54%-42% advantage over the Republican frontrunner. The President leads Santorum by eighteen points, 57%-39%.

Obama is also more strongly supported within his own party than any of the Republican candidates are. In a contest between Obama and Romney, 75% of Democrats and Democratic leaning voters said they will strongly support Obama. (Overall, 93% of Democrats and Democratic leaning voters will support the president). Only 63% of Republican and Republican leaning voters said they would strongly support Mitt Romney if he is the GOP nominee. (Overall, 88% of Republicans and Republican leaders will support Mitt Romney). The problem for Romney is that only 55% of Santorum supporters said that they would strongly support him in the fall.

Beyond the enthusiasm gap, there is a definite likeability gap between the candidates. Fifty six percent of registered voters held a favorable personal view of President Obama, while 29% had a favorable personal view of Mitt Romney, and 27% held a favorable personal view of Rick Santorum. The negative primary campaign that he has run has caused Mitt Romney’s personal favorable rating to completely nosedive. A majority of registered voters (51%) now hold a personally unfavorable view of the former Massachusetts governor. The view of him among Independents is also grim, as 47% hold a personally unfavorable view of the Republican primary leader.

By a margin of 58%-41%, registered voters felt that Obama understands their needs well or fairly well. In contrast, 50% of registered voters felt that Romney doesn’t understand their needs well or at all well.

All of these factors, plus a fifty percent job approval rating, add up to a strong opinion among registered voters that President Obama will win reelection. By an almost two to one margin, 59%-32%, registered voters think President Obama will defeat Mitt Romney in the fall. If Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee, the belief that Obama will win in November is even stronger, 68%-24%.

This survey isn’t a suggestion that President Obama will easily win reelection. In our current era of presidential electoral politics, there is no such thing as an easy win. What the results from Pew Research do provide is a look at political landscape that is very favorable to Obama. The gas prices issue comes and goes for every president, every summer. Recent history tells us that Obama may take a hit in the polls over the next few months, but by November, it won’t be much of an issue.

The overall picture is that of unpopular potential Republican nominees who are killing the enthusiasm for their own party through a negative and ugly slog through the primary process. Both of the top Republican candidates have negative personal approval ratings, and half the country doesn’t believe that the party’s frontrunner understands their needs.

Meanwhile, an always personally popular president is overseeing a growing economy and hardening the support among his base and Independents. Anything can happen. The country could dip back into recession, an unforeseen event could occur, but the Republican Party may not have a candidate who would be strong enough to take advantage of any potential downturn in President Obama’s political fortunes.

If nearly 60% of registered voters think that President Obama is going to win reelection, they probably believe this because they are planning to support him. This data should encourage Obama supporters and Democrats to work even harder. The point of the survey is not that Democrats should be complacent, but that they should work even harder to take advantage of this current climate. Republicans should be worried right now, because they likely have at least 6-8 more weeks of the primary process to muddle through. Their frontrunner finished third in two primaries last night, and has been unable to woo the GOP’s rank and file. The Republicans are a political party is disarray, who may be doomed by their own chaos to failure.

The tide has turned. The scene has changed, and if President Obama and his supporters work hard until November, a second term is within their grasp.

10 Replies to “Nearly 60% of Registered Voters Think President Obama Will Win Reelection”

  1. As Romeny says, Obama knows nothing about business and how the economy works, but stock market has doubled since the beginning of the recession? Seems like we don’t really need the self-described white knight to save the day after all. Why hand the wheel over to a man that will do away with Planned Parenthood, start a war with Iran, give more tax breaks for the rich, and stack the Supreme Court with more conservatives? Romeny is actually the risky bet. We already know Barack Obama, and he’s not a greedy crook.

  2. Good news, but everybody concerned about the 2012 election MUST pay attention to the new voter suppression tactics, including voter ID laws, which are currently being, or have been, enacted in many states. The GOP is counting on disenfranchising as many Democratic voters as possible this year.

    Get out and volunteer to help combat the pernicious effects to our democracy from these laws! Help register voters; offer to take folks without IDs to places where they can obtain IDs; form or join local groups in your hometown to identify people who haven’t registered or don’t have the “proper” IDs, and give them information/ help to get registered.

    Now is not the time for complacency. Now is the time for urgent action!

  3. This year now more than ever, information will be the tool of choice. Know what is going around you, be informed and proactive. CL is right, the voter ID is the new poll tax. The only way it will succeed is if you choose NOT to exercise the franchise. Get out and vote. And help those who wish to do so. The HATERz will be out there, but their shrieking only shows their dwindling numbers. If we get thru this election without bloodshed, great. I hope that the 1st thing Obama does is make sure all future elections are conducted on weekends or create a holiday in which to vote. Too many cannot vote simply cause they are working and cannot get to the polls before they close.

  4. November is only eight months away! With some of the things I’ve been involved with in the past, it would already be very late to get started!

  5. Two things.

    First, their numbers are NOT dwindling, they’re growing in numbers and power. That’s the old “religious right is dying” canard, and it really doesn’t fly.

    Second, that’s a good point about having to work… and I wonder how many employers wouldn’t be above making sure their employees COULDN’T vote. We need to be aware of and have a counter for that too.

  6. It may be too late for an organized and coordinated national effort, but it’s not too late for people to organize at the local level in their neighborhoods, towns, and cities.

    Local activism is where the action is at right now anyway. Most of the draconian laws are being enacted on the state and local level as a consequence of the 2010 midterms.

  7. I certainly HOPE so or our country is freakin’ doomed..along with the working people and those who can’t afford the proper medical attention. Actually, the whole Planet would be on Doom Watch.

    Keep the freaking fascists away from our Government. The stupid burns.

  8. This is slightly off topic, but might indicate a slight shift towards the positive side of things (the Pew Research information was also a tiny glimmer of good news).

    On the way to and from my school today, I noted that two businesses that always flew big Confederate battle flags no longer had them (one flew an American flag, the other an American flag with the Florida flag below it). Also, I noticed that one of the other places that had a virulent militia/Tea Party type flag hanging from their building had taken it down.

    I think that was a huge improvement. There are still quite a few Confederate flags on the way, but at least two of the ones in Hillsborough county were gone and that militia/tea party flag was also gone. The Confederate flags been flying every day since I returned to school in 2003.

  9. Perception means a lot–and who can visualize any of the current Republican crop in the White House?

    In Arizona, there’s a big push by the liberal elements (yes, there are a few of us) to sign up Latinos to receive their ballots by mail. That way, they aren’t in a position to be intimidated out of voting.

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