The mythical Trump bump may be nearing its end as a new poll shows that more Democrats are beginning to pay attention to the election.
A new Gallup poll shows a five point increase over the past month in the number of Democrats who are following the election.
Democrats have gained a net 6 points as the gap between the number of Republicans who are paying attention, and the number of Democrats who are paying attention has gone to from a net (+14) for the Republicans (48%-34%) in April to a net (+8) for the Republicans in May (47%-39%). It is no shock that the group that has been paying the most attention is Trump’s demographic of white males over age 50. There is a lot of room for growth with two key Democratic constituencies. Only 26% of millennial voters are currently paying close attention to the election, and 27% of non-white voters are paying close attention to the election.
The new Democratic constituencies that have grown during the Obama years typically don’t pay close attention until the general election approaches. Interestingly, the presence of Sen. Bernie Sanders has not caused millennials to pay greater attention to the election.
Democrats are beginning to come home. If recent history is any guide after the Democratic convention, and as the race moves into the fall, the most likely anti-Trump voters will mobilize and get engaged. Democratic voters, outside of the hotly contested 2008 primary, have a definite trend of paying less attention early.
The fact that Democrats are beginning to pay attention and come home to their party is bad news for Republicans and Trump. The Democratic voters are coming which will result in a shift in the polls to reflect continuing demographic trends among the electorate that are expected to benefit the Democratic nominee in November.
Republicans who think that Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate are in a for a big surprise when the same voters who powered Obama to two victories show up to make their voices heard.