Hillary Clinton’s big lead over Donald Trump continues to grow, while Trump is starting to hurt Congressional Republicans as Democrats have expanded their lead with voters on the generic Congressional ballot.
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 11 points in Democracy Corps’ most recent national survey (48 percent to 37 percent, with 8 percent voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson). This survey of 900 likely 2016 voters was conducted June 23-28th with 66 percent of respondents reached on cell phones.
Importantly, this is the first time that we have seen the presidential vote margin for Democrats exceed the Democrats’ party identification advantage: in this case, Democrats hold a 6-point advantage in party identification and an 8-point advantage with Republican and Democratic leaning-independents.
This poll also shows Democrats making gains down-ballot. In a named congressional ballot, Democratic congressional candidates have opened an 8-point lead over Republican congressional candidates (49 to 41 percent). This is up from a 6-point advantage over the Republican candidates in March polling, and the greatest margin for congressional Democrats that we have measured since June 2009 in our polling. This is also the same margin achieved during the wave elections of 2006 and 2008.
It is only July, but the poll offers a strong hint that there is a Democratic wave building for November. If Democrats keep or expand on their generic Congressional ballot lead, the unthinkable could occur, as the House Republican majority will be in jeopardy.
The efforts by Republicans to isolate Trump and prevent his plague of bad poll numbers from spreading down the ballot appear to be failing. The proof will come when more endangered incumbent Republican members of Congress run away from Trump.
The current Republican plan appears to be to ignore Trump and pretend like the presidential contest exists on another planet.
If the numbers continue to worsen, Republicans should be expected to overtly run away from Trump in a desperate attempt to save their own skins. Running way from the top of your own ticket never works, but Donald Trump is threatening to sink the entire Republican Party.
Democrats should be even more motivated to push harder to finish the job. Winning back the House is still a long shot that will take lots of effort, but thanks to Donald Trump, Democratic voters may have a chance in November to keep the White House, take back the Senate, and throw the extremists out of the House.
An election that was already going well could get even better for the Democratic Party by Election Day.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA.Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association