“The party’s candidates may not go quietly, but from the Arizona mountains to suburban Denver to the cornfields of Iowa, the GOP’s most powerful players this midterm season are actively shifting resources away from vulnerable Republican House candidates deemed too far gone and toward those thought to have a better chance of political survival.”
“And as they initiate a painful and strategic triage, the early Republican-on-Republican blame game has begun as well.”
Republican insiders are talking about the GOP giving up on as many as a dozen critical House races where their incumbents look headed for defeat. An analysis of spending patterns by both sides shows nothing but bad news for Republicans.
The money trail tells a story, and it supports the conclusion that GOP candidates are headed for defeat in about 12 House races they need to retain control. Democrats need just 23 seats to win back the House majority in November, so this puts them over half the way there. But there are dozens of additional House seats in play where Democrats are positioned very well to pick up ground.
According to the AP:
“GOP operatives connected to several vulnerable candidates complain that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has failed to deliver on its promise to invest $62 million in political advertising across 11 states this fall, a promise detailed in a September memo that declared, ‘The cavalry is coming.’”
So obviously the cavalry is not coming to help every GOP candidate.
“We’re starting to hone in on what are the races we can actually win. Sometime that requires a hard conversation,” said Paul Ryan’s fundraising coordinator, Spencer Zwick.
The super PAC associated with Ryan has released information saying that it has had to carry most of this year’s financial burden for House candidates since so many of them have had very weak fundraising.
In other words, the Republican candidates themselves have dropped the ball on raising the money they need to be competitive, and the national groups and PACs haven’t had sufficient funds to make up the difference.
“The GOP is now facing a green wave,” wrote Corry Bliss, who leads the Congressional Leadership Fund. “Democratic candidates are outspending Republican candidates in key races by $50 million.”
Democratic candidates have outspent their Republican counterparts $116 million to $66 million across almost 80 competitive House districts since July, according to the AP.
“This is going to be a devastating election for Republicans across the ballot,” said Republican strategist Terry Sullivan. “Republican donors are smart folks,” he said. “They’re not going to give money to a losing cause.”
When big-money GOP donors stop giving to the “losing cause” of trying to help Republicans keep House control, that is a very good sign for Democrats, and more proof that (at least in the House) the Blue Wave is coming.