The Economy Adds More Jobs, But It Won’t Help Trump In 2020

Another good month of decent, but slowing job growth will do nothing to help Donald Trump’s reelection chances in 2020.

The economy continues to add jobs, but there are underlying issues

The economy added 253,000 which is good topline number, but 2019 is not as good as 2015 and 2016, and it is right on pace with the economy has been doing in terms of yearly average since 2014 (data from Aaron Sojourner former CEA labor economist):

The average pace of job growth has slowed over the last three months:

On the surface, the numbers look good for Trump and Republicans. In a normal situation, they would be able to run on this economy, and not worry about winning, no matter who the Democrats nominate, but there is a problem.

Most Americans don’t feel the economy booming

The issue that haunts Trump’s paper economic boom is slow real wage growth:

The lack of real wage growth is haunting Trump because a recent poll found that only 12% of Americans say that they have benefited from Trump’s economy. It doesn’t matter if the numbers say that the economy is doing well if people don’t feel it in their wallets.

The economy didn’t help Republicans in 2018, and it will not help Trump in 2020.

Having a job is great, but that is negated by concerns about healthcare and making enough money to pay the bills. People don’t feel like they are “winning,” which is why so many of them are ready to make Trump a loser next year.