Another good month of decent, but slowing job growth will do nothing to help Donald Trump’s reelection chances in 2020.
The economy continues to add jobs, but there are underlying issues
The economy added 253,000 which is good topline number, but 2019 is not as good as 2015 and 2016, and it is right on pace with the economy has been doing in terms of yearly average since 2014 (data from Aaron Sojourner former CEA labor economist):
How does this compare to recent years?
Over the year, job growth is up. Economy added 2.62 million jobs over last 12 months.
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Higher than 2 prior years, less than 12 months to April 2016 or 2015. pic.twitter.com/oeUKMdJbdj
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) May 3, 2019
The average pace of job growth has slowed over the last three months:
That 2.62 million over the year => 218K/mo.
Over last 3 months = 169K.
Still strong but slower.
This month’s +263 K >> estimate of job growth needed to maintain a low, stable unemployment rate given demog change ~= +80K.— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) May 3, 2019
On the surface, the numbers look good for Trump and Republicans. In a normal situation, they would be able to run on this economy, and not worry about winning, no matter who the Democrats nominate, but there is a problem.
Most Americans don’t feel the economy booming
The issue that haunts Trump’s paper economic boom is slow real wage growth:
Average hourly earnings growth (blue line: 3.2%) eroded some by modest price inflation (red: 1.9%).
Real wage growth (blue – red) rising but low. Average hour of private-sector work buys 1.3% more now than a year ago.
Growth was faster in 2015, thanks to lower price inflation pic.twitter.com/NSi4F39sS4
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) May 3, 2019
The lack of real wage growth is haunting Trump because a recent poll found that only 12% of Americans say that they have benefited from Trump’s economy. It doesn’t matter if the numbers say that the economy is doing well if people don’t feel it in their wallets.
The economy didn’t help Republicans in 2018, and it will not help Trump in 2020.
Having a job is great, but that is negated by concerns about healthcare and making enough money to pay the bills. People don’t feel like they are “winning,” which is why so many of them are ready to make Trump a loser next year.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
