Key states Arizona and North Carolina have seen rising unemployment, and now Trump has a negative approval rating.
Signs are growing that Trump could lose a red state
.But more people in Arizona and North Carolina disapprove of his job as president than approve, according to the latest Morning Consult poll.
North Carolina has 15 electoral votes, and Arizona has 11. Moreover, Trump pulled off somewhat narrow victories over Hillary Clinton in each state in the 2016 election — 3.6% in North Carolina and 3.5% in Arizona.
In Indiana, Nebraska, and Kansas, Trump’s net approval ratings are in the low single digits, according to the Morning Consult poll. The states have a combined 22 electoral votes. Trump won by more comfortable margins in these states — 19% in Indiana, 25% in Nebraska and 20.5% in Kansas.
The odds of Trump losing Kansas, Indiana, or Nebraska are slim. The danger is much higher in Arizona, where Democrats have made inroads for years and look poised to flip the state from red to blue.
If Trump doesn’t get the same map as 2016, he will lose
Donald Trump is counting on running the same election with the same result that he ran in 2016. Trump has claimed that he doesn’t swing voters because his base is so strong. Trump has left himself with virtually no margin for error. If Trump loses two of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and flips Arizona, Florida and Wisconsin won’t matter because the election will be over. Trump can’t afford to lose a state like Arizona or North Carolina.
The signs of voter discontent in some states that Trump carried are plainly visible. If it all falls apart for Trump on election day, the electoral map could explode into a spectacular blowout defeat. Trump can’t afford to lose any red states, and if he does, Republicans can kiss the White House, and probably the Senate goodbye.
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