Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:12 pm
The roller coaster 2016 presidential election did another loop to loop as a new poll of red state Georgia shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump statistically tied.
According to the new Monmouth University poll of Georgia:
Among Georgia voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 45% support Trump and 42% back Hillary Clinton. Another 8% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 5% are undecided.
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Clinton actually holds a 55% to 35% lead over Trump in the greater Atlanta area – the six congressional districts surrounding Georgia’s capital city – while Trump leads 51% to 33% in the rest of the state. The Democrat’s advantage around Atlanta is due almost entirely to the larger share of black voters who live in that region.
Clinton has a commanding 88% to 4% lead over Trump among black voters statewide. Trump holds a strong 66% to 20% advantage, though, among white voters across Georgia. This margin is similar among both white men (67% to 20%) and white women (65% to 21%). Trump has an even larger lead among white voters without a college degree (78% to 10%) than he does among white college graduates (54% to 31%).
Among white voters age 50 and older, 68% support Trump, 23% support Clinton, and 6% support Johnson. Among white voters under 50 years old, 63% support Trump, 16% support Clinton, and 16% support Johnson.
The 2016 race for the White House is shaping up to be a base turnout election. If there is one thing that Donald Trump’s supporters have proven since he entered the race, it is that they show up to vote. For Democrats to win in Georgia, and win nationwide, they have to get the same constituency that powered President Obama to two victories out to vote.
After all of the hand-wringing in some Democratic circles over the polls, it may seem hard to believe, but Hillary Clinton still can win in states like Georgia and North Carolina. Hillary Clinton is not losing this election. “Momentum” is often a mythical term that losing campaigns and the media are fond of because it is helpful in creating storylines.
The bottom line is simple. Hillary Clinton can both flip states like Georgia and win the White House in November, but the fate of her bid to be the next president hinges on turnout more than her message.
If Democrats show up as they did for Obama, Clinton will likely be the next President Of The United States. Proof of Clinton’s good odds is that she is still in position to have a chance to flip a red state like Georgia into her column.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
