Donald Trump, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, and other Republicans are lying about the impact of Obamacare repeal. According to an analysis by ACA expert Charles Gaba, repeal will result in 24.5 million Americans losing their health insurance.
First, Speaker Ryan (R-WI) made a dubious claim in a local Wisconsin interview, “Clearly there will be a transition and a bridge so that no one is left out in the cold, so that no one is worse off. The purpose here is to bring relief to people who are suffering from Obamacare so that they can get something better.”
His claim was one-upped by Trump senior adviser Kellyanne Conway who claimed that no one who has health insurance would lose it after Obamacare is repealed.
However, the guru of ACA math Charles Gaba analyzed the post-repeal situation and found, “My estimate of the number of highly-subsidized exchange enrollees losing coverage is down a few hundred thousand…but the number of Medicaid enrollees who’d lose coverage is dramatically higher due to yesterday’s revelation that 1.6 million+ additional New Yorkers enrolled in Medicaid would lose their coverage under an ACA repeal than I had previously thought. These folks are listed in the “Young Adults/Other” column due to the unique circumstances at hand. As a result, the grand total at risk now stands at up to 24.5 million people under my scenario (still around 30 million under the Urban Institute’s).”
Gaba’s model is a bit different than how the Urban Institute calculated that 29.8 million people will lose their health insurance after the ACA is repealed.
The conclusion is the same in both studies. Tens of millions of Americans are going to lose their access to healthcare after the ACA is repealed because the Republicans are targeting putting an end to funding for the Medicaid expansion and ACA subsidies. Without a replacement plan, which Republicans don’t have, 20-30 million Americans will lose their health insurance.
Republicans are lying to the American people. ACA repeal is not going to painless. It is going to harm the quality of life of millions. Trump and the GOP will pay a steep price for their ideological folly.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association