Andrew Gillum Has A 12 Point Lead As Democrats Surge In Florida

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum has opened up a 12 point lead over Republican Ron DeSantis (54%-42%) as Florida women are backing Democrats.

Here are some key numbers from CNN:

Gillum’s 54% to 42% lead rests on advantages among women (60% back him vs. 34% who say they favor DeSantis), non-white voters (74% back Gillum, 23% DeSantis), younger voters (60% for Gillum, 33% for DeSantis) and political independents (51% back Gillum, 42% DeSantis). Gillum has also consolidated Democratic support (97% favor him) in a way that DeSantis has not matched on the Republican side (88% back him).

Views of Donald Trump are about as polarizing as partisanship in this race, which Trump has tweeted about multiple times. Among the 51% of likely voters who disapprove of the president, 92% back Gillum, while 87% back DeSantis among the 43% who approve of Trump.


A Potential Brett Kavanaugh Effect In Florida

There could be a Brett Kavanaugh effect in Florida. Gillum’s support mirrors the levels of opposition that was visible in the Brett Kavanaugh polling. While Republicans continue to whistle past the graveyard in the hope that Kavanaugh can motivate their voters and save the GOP majorities in the House and Senate, what appears to be manifesting itself in Florida is an anti-Republican wave.

The other factor at play is that Ron DeSantis has tried to run as a Trump mini-me. This strategy is already failing in states like Pennsylvania and has failed in Virginia. The Trump clone strategy has yet to show any signs that can work in elections that do not involve Trump being on the ballot. DeSantis is another poor Republican candidate who tried to hide his deficiencies by acting like Trump.

If Gillum wins, it would mean an end to the voter suppression policies of Rick Scott, and a state that Democrats didn’t get in 2016 could be poised to flip back to them in 2020.

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