Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are tied in a wide-open Iowa Democratic caucus, with Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris also at double-digit support.
Biden and Sanders Are Tied In Iowa
Iowa Starting Line reported on their poll:
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are locked in a tie in Iowa atop the large field of Democrats running for the presidential nomination. An Iowa Starting Line/Change Research Poll of 615 likely Democratic caucus-goers that was conducted this past week, May 15 to May 19, found both Biden and Sanders garnering 24% among the Democratic candidates. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.9%.
Three contenders trailed the leaders with healthy percentages of support: Pete Buttigieg at 14%, Elizabeth Warren at 12%, and Kamala Harris at 10%. Beto O’Rourke came in at 5%, while Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang both had 2%. Everyone else polled at 1% or less.
Part of that is due to Sanders’ residual strength here from his 2016 run and remaining volunteer network. In this survey, 45% of those polled who said they caucused for Sanders in 2016 list him as their first choice in the caucus.
Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris could all show well in Iowa
There is a gap between Biden and Sanders and the second tier of Democrats, but Iowa is showing that there are currently only five real contenders for the party’s nomination. Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris could all potentially move up to challenge Biden and Sanders for the win in Iowa. If this very early poll holds, it shows a Democratic field that is more up for grabs in Iowa than in other states.
Bernis Sanders Needs To Win Iowa
Joe Biden doesn’t need to win Iowa. A second place finish wouldn’t hurt him. If Sanders can’t win Iowa with a huge Democratic field and his 2016 organization in place, it will be a devastating loss. New Hampshire isn’t a lock for Sanders by any means, so if he loses Iowa, Bernie Sanders could lose the first four states on the calendar and see his chances of being the nominee vanish.
Bernie Sanders must have a win in Iowa. If he finishes second, the Biden march to the 2020 nomination could be on.
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Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA.Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association