Former vice president Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren are the top two Democratic candidates in the latest poll of California.
According to the Berkeley IGS Poll, “Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slim four-point advantage at 22%, followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 18%, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (17%) California U.S.Senator Kamala Harris (13%) and South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (10%). No other candidate receives more than 3%, and 11% are undecided. The closeness of the race is further demonstrated when voters’ first and second choice preferences are combined. In this setting, Warren is chosen by 35%, Biden and Harris each receives 34% and Sanders 29% Buttigieg is further back at 18%.”
California is wide open, but Elizabeth Warren is moving up
The race in California is close, and while Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina get all of the early attention, California will be voting early in 2020 well. Due to the 2020 delegate allocation rule that a candidate must receive 15% of the vote to pick up delegates only Biden, Warren, and Sanders would win delegates in California right now. Kamala Harris is just under the threshold, and her current fourth-place standing in her home state has to be a bit of an early disappointment.
The California poll is the third one in two days to have Warren ahead of Sanders.
The conventional wisdom of this primary has been that Biden and Sanders would be the top two, but it is starting to look like Biden and Warren are the top two with Bernie Sanders being pushed to third. The Democrats may have nearly two dozen candidates, but the primary is really a five-person race with Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, and Buttigieg standing out from the pack. The debates in less than two weeks will be a chance for the candidates to get some separation, but it looks like the California primary could be fun to watch free for all where anyone in the top five could win.
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