Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 12:03 pm
The swing states that Trump won in 2016 have shifted to Joe Biden as the former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee leads by 17.
According to the new Abacus Data poll:
Biden’s path to the White House requires reversing Trump’s 2016 success in key battleground states. Here the news is good for the Democrats. In swing states that Trump won in 201 (FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, WI) Biden leads by 17-points. Biden has a 22-point lead in solid Democratic states while Trump leads by a smaller 2-point margin in typically solid Republican states, although some of those states like Arizona, Texas, and Georgia are closer than in 2016.
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Only 1% of Hillary Clinton voters would vote Trump while 9% of 2016 Trump voters would vote Biden. That leakage alone could be enough to cost Trump re-election given how close the result was in 2016.
Among those who did not vote in 2016 but are registered to vote, 49% would vote Biden while only 14% would vote for Trump.
The swing state numbers are devastating enough to sink Trump, but add to the equation the fact that a sizable number of 2016 Trump voters say that they would vote for Biden, and the elements are in place for a potential disaster for Republicans in 2020.
Trump thought that he could rerun the 2016 election in 2020.
He hasn’t tried to expand the map or his base of support, but Joe Biden isn’t Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump is the incumbent, not the political outsider.
Trump’s collapse in the swing states is worsening with no sign of turning around anytime soon.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
