Democrat Bruce Braley Up A Whopping 15 Points With Early Voters In Iowa Senate Race


In a poll released Wednesday by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Rep, Bruce Braley (D-IA) holds a commanding lead with early voters in Iowa’s open US Senate race compared to his Republican opponent, Joni Ernst. While the poll shows the race to be a dead heat, which is consistent with recent polling, Braley holds an imposing 15-point lead with those who have already voted. The poll also shows that Braley has a 10-point lead with independent voters.

The internal poll from Braley’s campaign might be seen as overly optimistic and partisan by some. However, considering that the results fall in line with recent polling from national firms seems to indicate that this survey is fairly accurate. Also, the sample size (802 voters) isn’t overly small as we’ve seen in the past with other partisan polls that prove to be outliers. Therefore, it has to be troubling for Ernst that she is far behind when it comes to those who have voted early and independents.

With early voters, Braley is up 54% to 39%. The registration of those who have already voted is pretty much split down the middle, 40% for Democrats and 41% for Republicans. Therefore, independents appear to be coming out in droves for Braley. The poll also shows that independent voters prefer Braley (51%) over Ernst (41%). Overall, the poll shows Ernst and Braley tied, 47% – 47%. This would seem to indicate that the majority of Ernst’s supporters plan on voting on Tuesday.

Ernst’s strategy down the stretch appears to be to appeal directly to her base and energize them ahead of Election Day. At the same time, she is doing her level best to avoid saying anything else that will reveal how extreme her views and positions really are. Braley and Democrats are hammering Ernst with ads detailing her positions on privatizing Social Security and personhood. She’s also been caught making Sharron Angle-like comments about the Second Amendment. With all that in the wind, Ernst’s campaign decided to have her pull out of previous commitments she had with newspapers to meet with their editorial boards. They needed her to avoid saying anything else that could jeopardize a winnable race.

Iowa is a key state for Republicans in their quest to take over the Senate. The seat has been long held by a Democrat, the retiring Tom Harkin. If Democrats are able to retain this seat, it makes it much more likely that they will keep the majority in the Senate. Braley’s large leads with early and independent voters bode well for Democrats keeping this seat.

26 Replies to “Democrat Bruce Braley Up A Whopping 15 Points With Early Voters In Iowa Senate Race”

  1. Early voting favors Dems, that’s why the GOP are trying to eliminate it. I am not surprised Independents are voting for Bruce, or any other Democrat. The GOP ignored them, big mistake!

  2. Give Joni a break! She cancelled the interviews with the newspapers because she was afraid that they would make her squeal like a pig.

  3. Or maybe she was afraid the reporters also knew how to castrate? Or maybe she is the typical GOP coward who refuses to debate, answer questions about policy, or do anything except act like Palin and spout GOP/ALEC/KOCH daily talking points? Any and all..I do hope this trend continues, and spills over in WI and MI and Ohio. I voted today, and my ticket was all Democratic. I also voted to support the schools Snyder has decimated, and for a road millage. I believe in taxes…we need services in a civilized society. I do not get why the GOP wants to take us back to 1830. (I know why they want women there, just not why they want our country there.)

  4. Wow!! Hardly know what to say!! I am in Calif and have been following this closely. So concerned. I will have a glass of wine and sleep better tonight.

  5. Shiva, all of the gop politicians are idiots! so is walker, paul, perry, and scott. they are major idiots! seriously, they aren’t worthy to clean behinds in nursing homes!
    walker always has that wtf look on his face. perry always looks like he’s in a twilight, paul has that lost in space look, and scott had that deer caught in the headlight look. ernst has that dazed and confused look. but they are all idiots!

  6. Dream on everyone…. An internal Democratic leaning poll that will be coming shows Ernst up 5 and over 50% even with Braley’s early voting lead. Governor Branstad has coat tails. It’s going to be a long night. Republicans = 52 seats

  7. hahaha, your assessment on the “look on the face” for these GOP darlings is spot on. Thanks for the chuckle.

  8. Ernst and McCain just killed a deer with their touring bus. No one else was harmed.

    The metaphorical options are boundless.

  9. How this race is even close is baffling. Does Braley shoot himself in the foot that often? I don’t see Iowa as a backward state and Ernst just seems so unelectable.

  10. Well your leading Dem candidate for Prez just told us businesses don’t create jobs. Lurch Kerry told us that Christians have a moral responsibility to save Muslims from climate change, Harry “taxes are voluntary in this country” Reid (enough said of that senile serial liar), Nancy “pass the bill and see what’s in it”. An Obama administration that has been caught red-handed planning to bring sick Ebola patients here for treatment. No, it appears the Dems have a firm lock on stupid. You can’t script stupid this good.

  11. Maybe being caught on tape insulting farmers is bad campaign strategy in Iowa. In other words, Braley is your typical arrogant, condescending elitist progressive.

  12. No one needs to script stupid. All you have to do is look at the GOP base. Millions of uninformed, paranoid, racist fools who consistently vote against their own best interests. All the Dems in the country couldn’t hold a candle to the mass myopia of the FOX crowd.
    “Not all conservatives are stupid people, but all stupid people are conservatives.”
    -John Stuart Mill

  13. Condescending is also an attitude, and Ernst’s refusal to speak with the editorial boards of three Iowa newspapers is condescending in the extreme. Her extremist opinions are what’s keeping the race so close, as voters see what’s under the hood – another corporatist, dressed in farm clothes.

  14. Hey dumbass whendid the President say Business doesn’t create jobs? I don’t know why your idiotic post made it through but YOU are one stupid mother&cker

  15. bs bagger looney gop in ur dreams braley will win and dems will keep senate so eat, so bugger off and spread ur lies someone else

  16. i disagree with the article bruce baily will win, yes it will be close but baily will win and everybody knows that the independants decide who wins and so far among early voting bruce baley has a 10 point lead among indenpants so the article is bs

  17. again brook idiot stupid delsuional brainwashed tea party gop conservative move on ur mad cuz u know we dems will keep us senate

    ps brook gets some sense and start voting dem

  18. bob i read the article and there is no were it says tied 47 47 and also the article states that yes the republicans did have a shortlived lead in early voting but since then the democrats have taken the lead also the articles admits early voting statistacs does not take into account the indenpendant voters and among early voting bruce baily has a 10 point lead among indepnedants and i have thru the years talked to indenpendants and most indenpendanst will not vote for a looney tea bagger like joni earnst cuz, indendants usually will not vote for a hardline liberal but neither will they vote for a rush limbaugh person like joni earnst cuz they dont like hardline conservatives, indenpendants mostly vote most of the time and hear me i say most of the time but not always but majority of time independants vote for people that are in the middle moderates so thus it will be the indenpendants who decides whether bruce baily or joni earnst wins and based on early voting statistics so far

  19. bruce bailey has a 10 point lead among indenpendants that tells me bruce bailey will squeak out as the winner yes close but i predict bruce baily will win cuz of indenpents, mr bob u mislead what the article realy said

  20. Braley has 15 point lead?? Really? Is this bogus number given so as to provide cover for the Dems as they wage their massive VOTER FRAUD campaign to push Braley over the top?

    The REALITY is, Ernst is up by 7 points over Braley but you Dems aren’t interested in the FACTS are you…

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