You know all of those “vulnerabilities” we keep hearing about regarding Hillary Clinton? Well sanity is prevailing in the swing state of Virginia at this juncture in the race, with disdain for Donald Trump driving his favorables down while Clinton leads a 14-point margin among registered voters.
In a new Washington Post poll released Tuesday morning, Clinton leads over Trump 52% to 38% among registered voters.
In the favorable unfavorable section, we unpack a media narrative that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are equally vulnerable due to being disliked. Among all adults, Hillary Clinton has a 44% favorable to a 53% unfavorable, and among registered voters she has a 54% unfavorable.
Donald Trump has an astonishing 31% favorable to 66% unfavorable with all adults and with registered voters, he gets 32% favorable to 65% unfavorable.
Where’s all of the hate coming from? As we might expect, women give Trump a mere 27% favorable, with a whopping 70% unfavorable. Trump also does poorly with non-whites and African Americans, with just a 12% favorable with net non-whites and a lowly 7% favorable among African Americans.
Trump gets his highest favorables from high school only crowd, with 36% coming from them. The favorables drop with each education level, with post-grad only giving him 22% favorables.
But, and here’s the pain for the Republican Party, whites only give Trump a 41% favorable with a 56% unfavorable. In veteran households, Trump gets a 32% favorable and a 64% unfavorable. Yikes, these are really bad numbers for Republicans.
So no, these two candidates aren’t anywhere near each other in terms of unfavorables — and this is in the beltway’s back yard.
Perhaps Tim Kaine’s home state advantage is helping. The Democratic Senator has a 52% favorable rating to 35% unfavorable. Registered voters said Clinton’s pick of Kaine made them 26% more likely to vote for the ticket while 66% said it made no difference.
Fifty-five percent approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing, with 39% disapproving. These high numbers also bode well for Clinton, who has promised to continue many of the President’s policies. Obama took Virginia in both 2008 and 2012.
It’s only August, so obviously these numbers can change. Nothing is written in stone until people actually show up to vote and the votes are counted.
The takeaways here are three things: 1) Trump is losing another swing state, by a wide margin at this point. 2) Trump and Clinton’s unfavorables are not equal, Trump is bleeding favorables and is disliked at a significantly higher rate across the board. 3) Trump is even seen poorly by whites and veteran households.
The only way to close this gap a little is when we add in third party candidates, which then puts Clinton at a 7 point lead over Trump.
“Virginia is for Lovers” is apparently not just a slogan, as in Virginia, love is trumping hate right now.
Ms. Jones is the co-founder/ editor-in-chief of PoliticusUSA and a member of the White House press pool.
Sarah hosts Politicus News and co-hosts Politicus Radio. Her analysis has been featured on several national radio, television news programs and talk shows, and print outlets including Stateside with David Shuster, as well as The Washington Post, The Atlantic Wire, CNN, MSNBC, The Week, The Hollywood Reporter, and more.
Sarah is a member of the Society of Professional Journalists.