In the swing state of Florida, Hillary Clinton has opened up a 9 point lead over Donald Trump white voters abandon him, and conditions get more dire for the Republican nominee.
According to the latest Monmouth University poll of Florida:
Among Sunshine State voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 39% back Trump. Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with 5% who are undecided.
Among self-identified Democrats, 92% support Clinton while 4% choose Trump and just 3% back a third party candidate. Trump has less support among his own party base, with 79% of Republicans who back their nominee, compared to 12% who support Clinton and 5% who back another candidate. Clinton leads Trump among independents by 47% to 30%, with 11% supporting Johnson and 2% backing Stein.
Clinton has an overwhelming lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters who make up about one-third of the electorate, garnering 69% of this group’s vote to 19% for Trump. Trump leads among white voters by 51% to 37%, but there is a significant gender split. Among white men, Trump has a 64% to 24% advantage. Among white women, Clinton leads by 49% to 39%. There is no difference by educational attainment, with Trump ahead among white voters without a college degree (51% to 39%) as well as white college graduates (50% to 36%).
Clinton’s 50 point lead among non-white voters is similar to Barack Obama’s advantage over Mitt Romney with this group four years ago (49 points according to the 2012 Florida exit poll). Trump’s 14 point lead among white voters is smaller than Romney’s 24 point win with this group. This difference is due mainly to a widening gender gap. Trump is doing somewhat better than Romney did among white men (+40 points compared to +32), but much worse among white women (-10 points compared to +17).
Trump’s poor support from white women and non-existent support among minorities are creating a perfect storm effect for Democrats. Trump’s has not expanded the Republican Party’s demographic appeal. In fact, Trump has managed to push white women away from the GOP in Florida, and in the process, he is shrinking the party down to its conservative white male core.
The core question for Trump is where can he go to make up the votes that he is losing from white women? The answer is nowhere. There are not enough white male conservative voters to offset the massive loss of white female voters in the state. Trump has nuked his bridges with Hispanic, black, Asian, millennial, and voters with disabilities.
The drag of having the most unpopular nominee in the history of polling has pushed the GOP towards a state of collapse. Reagan’s dream of a big tent party is only being held up by a pole of white male conservatives that is snapping under the burden of Trump’s candidacy.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association