A new batch of early voting data shows that Hillary Clinton is surging in the typically Republican states of Arizona and North Carolina, and performing well in the critical battleground states of Florida and Colorado, too.
According to the Associated Press report out Saturday, the Democratic nominee “appears to be displaying strength in the crucial battleground states” as millions of voters cast their ballots early.
“The Clinton campaign is looking to build an insurmountable lead in Florida and North Carolina during early voting,” the AP reported. “Using 2012 as a guidepost, she appears to be in a strong position in early voting.”
The news agency noted that a record 3 million people have requested absentee ballots, which is evenly split between both parties. In 2008, when Obama won the state of Florida by less than three points, the GOP had a 17-point edge in these requests – a sign Democrats are even outperforming President Obama’s solid numbers.
“The Trump campaign should be concerned,” said Scott Tranter, the co-founder of a Republican data analytics organizations. Tranter says Clinton is having a “strong final showing” when it comes to early voting.
More from the report on numbers from the key states of Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada:
Early voting is surging in Arizona, another state Trump can’t afford to lose. Arizona has long been reliably Republican, but Clinton is targeting it.
More than 1.9 million ballots have been requested and 36,000 returned. That’s more than triple the 10,800 ballots returned during a similar period in 2012.
Democrats have a 44 percent to 31 percent lead over Republicans in ballots returned. Another 25 percent were independent or unknown. At this point in 2012, Democrats had a narrower 38 percent to 35 percent lead, according to Catalist.
In Colorado, which began voting by mail on Monday, Democrats led 43 percent to 30 percent among the 15,280 ballots returned by late Thursday. In 2012, the party had trailed Republicans early. Registered Democrats have since surpassed Republicans in the state.
And in Nevada, which also began absentee voting this week, overall ballot requests and returns were down. There were sharper declines among older whites, who tend to vote Republican.
The Associated Press notes that Trump is holding his ground in Ohio, Iowa, and the red state of Georgia, but even if the Republican nominee won these three states – and that’s a big “if” – it wouldn’t be enough to overcome Clinton’s advantages in other swing states.
If early voting numbers are any indication, they show not just that Clinton’s grassroots operation is strong, but that Donald Trump’s campaign is in serious trouble.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.