The polls are closing in on Donald Trump as Election Day nears. Real Clear Politics reports that “Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump in the RCP average for the 87th consecutive day since the general election started.”
This is obviously bad news for Trump. He can say polls don’t matter but what you don’t know, or refuse to believe, can still hurt you. And he is not only behind in nearly every poll, but he has been behind since the general election started. Just look at the numbers:
Even Rasmussen Reports, which uses unreliable online polling data, has Clinton leading Trump 43 percent to 42 percent.
We saw earlier that his LGBT favorable rating is just 12 percent. The other demographics are also bleak. His black support of just 0 to 1 percent stands in stark contrast to his endorsement by the KKK and other white supremacist groups. Trump, as The New York Times‘ Yamiche, puts it, represents a “numbing familiarity.”
Trump’s favorable rating among Jews stands at just 23 percent despite continuing claims by the Trump camp that neither candidate nor supporters are anti-Semitic, and only 9 percent of Muslims have a favorable view of the Republican nominee.
His poll numbers, while not proof of a vote, show him lacking support from every minority group and even his white support is conditional, as The Washington Post‘s Philip Bump explains,
“Trump’s problem is, in part, that he seems to be disliked more by moderate Republicans and Republicans with degrees than he is liked by white men without degrees.”
CNN reported of the 2012 elections that, “According to CNN exit polls, 93% of African-Americans, 71% of Hispanics and 73% of Asians supported Obama over Romney.” There is a lesson here for any Republican who wants to see the inside of the Oval Office, that adopting a white supremacist, religiously intolerant position is not the ticket.
In 2016, a Gallup report from earlier this month reveals “About half of Latino registered voters (54%) continue to say the Democratic Party is more concerned for Latinos than the Republican Party; just 11% say the GOP has greater concern.”
Trump can’t count on the gay vote, he can’t count on the Latino vote, and he absolutely cannot count on the black vote when his support among African-Americans stands at about 1 percent.
Let’s look at it this way: As Bump showed in September, Donald Trump has polled consistently worse than Mitt Romney in 2012. And Mitt Romney lost the election.
All the rhetoric in the world from Kellyanne Conway or Trump himself is going to change that reality. Bump’s conclusion was that,
“Donald Trump needs, simply enough, to do better than Mitt Romney in order to win. At this point, he isn’t.”
We are 12 days away from Election Day, and Trump is behind and has been behind every day since the general election began. Time is a perishable commodity and a non-renewable resource, and time is running out for Donald J. Trump.
Hrafnkell Haraldsson, a social liberal with leanings toward centrist politics has degrees in history and philosophy. His interests include, besides history and philosophy, human rights issues, freedom of choice, religion, and the precarious dichotomy of freedom of speech and intolerance. He brings a slightly different perspective to his writing, being that he is neither a follower of an Abrahamic faith nor an atheist but a polytheist, a modern-day Heathen who follows the customs and traditions of his Norse ancestors. He maintains his own blog, A Heathen’s Day, which deals with Heathen and Pagan matters, and Mos Maiorum Foundation www.mosmaiorum.org, dedicated to ethnic religion. He has also contributed to NewsJunkiePost, GodsOwnParty and Pagan+Politics.