Greg Gianfonte Wins Montana Special Election As Rob Quist Falls Short In Upset Bid

Republican Greg Gianfonte has been declared the projected winner of the special House election in Montana.

The official election results will be available here.

Republican Greg Gianforte is still favored to win despite assaulting a reporter, but the race has tightened due to the health care issue in the last two weeks.

Nate Cohn of The New York Times warns that we could be in for a very long night:

Early results show Gianforte running ahead of what he needs in Billings and Helena:

CNN’s Jake Tapper with a reminder that a whole bunch of people already voted:

10:15 PM ET: Early voting results with 103, 194 votes in: Quist 48% Gianforte 46.2%

From Decision Desk HQ: Looking at some early voting from counties of interest:

Yellewstone (slighty R leaning): 56/37 Gianforte
Lewis and Clark (normally moderately blue): 52/42 Quist

10:19 PM ET: With 104, 509 votes in Quist: 47.8% Gianforte: 46.3%.

Steve Kornacki:

10:24 PM ET: With 159,662 votes in: Quist: 47.6 Gianforte: 46.9%

10:27 PM ET: With 162, 574 votes in Gianforte 47.3% Quist: 47%

10:28: PM ET: With 185,061 votes in Gianforte: 47.4% Quist: 46.9%

10:30 PM ET: With 190,890 votes in Gianforte: 47.6% Quist: 46.7%

Steve Kornacki:

10:40 PM ET With 191,086 votes in Gianforte 47.6% Quist: 46.7%

Update: 10:43 PM ET: Gianforte 47.7% Quist: 46.6%

Update: 10:49 PM ET: With 196,415 votes in Gianforte 48% Quist: 46.2%

With 199,788 total votes in: Gianforte: 48.3% Quist: 46%.

Update: 11:01 PM ET: With 202, 609 votes in: Gianforte: 48.6% Quist: 45.7%

With 203,677 votes in Gianforte: 48.6% Quist: 45.6%

Update: 11:06 PM ET: Gianforte: 48.7% Quist: 45.6%

Steve Kornacki:

Update: Gianforte: 49.2% Quist: 45%

Update Gianforte: 49.9% Quist: 44.3%

The Trump vote has largely held for Gianforte so this race looks over:

Decision Desk has called the race for Gianforte:

It looks Gianforte will be another red state Republican who substantially underperformed Trump’s margin of victory in 2016. The Montana result only confirms that Democratic momentum is building towards 2018.