One of the reasons why the Pennsylvania House special election is so close is that Democrats who voted for Trump in the 18th District are coming home to Conor Lamb.
— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) March 11, 2018
John Micek editorial and opinion editor of Penn Live and the Patriot-News explained why this election is so close on MSNBC.
Micek said, “You’re right. This is a plus 19 Trump district in 2016. As recently as two months ago Rick Saccone had a 12% lead, and by Monday that had tightened to 3% point by Conor Lamb. Within 4.8% margin of error. What they are fighting over is 7% block who are undecided in this race. It has come down to personality and to policy. And in large part due to weakness for one, Conor Lamb is a strong out of central casting Democrat but a lot of weakness on the part of Rick Saccone. Who has been a reliable conservative vote in Pennsylvania state legislature for about 3 1/2 terms now. What was interesting is Tim Murphy, the Republican congressman who held the seat previously, one of the reasons he was successful was he built bridges to organize labor and is strong on that part of the district. Saccone while a member of the Pennsylvania house cast toxic anti-labor votes. Talking to people on the ground there that cost him support. There is a Republican state senator out knocking doors out there I’m told not too long ago. These Republican voters who answered the door said I’m voting for you but not for Rick Saccone. And conversely now sort of these labor voters from these labor activist now Democrats who are trump voters in 2016 are now coming home to Conor Lamb in part at least because of some of the anti-labor votes that Rick Saccone made in the assembly.”
Democrats are coming home to Lamb. This is a district that the Republicans should be winning with ease, but as we have seen in previous special elections, Republicans have struggled to get out the vote and mobilize their voters to support a series of lackluster candidates. Some are saying that this election doesn’t mean much because the new Pennsylvania map phases this district out, but this race matters because it is a great barometer of where the electorate stands.
If Republicans can’t hold a House seat in a district that Trump won by 20, and Romney by 17, they might not stand a chance in other districts around the country that are much more competitive.
Democrats are coming home, and they are supporting Conor Lamb.
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