While various media outlets report that Donald Trump’s poll numbers are on the rise, we should take a moment to grab on to reality with both hands, and remember that those poll numbers remain at what my AP Calculus teacher used to somberly describe as”below C-level.” In other words, FoxBusiness, nothing to crow about.
It’s true, a 7-point bump in the polls is great. Under most any polling circumstances. Let’s allow, though, that when that bump still leaves you at the lowest Presidential approval rating since modern polling began that maaaaaaaybe there’s a little work to do to win the hearts and minds of the electorate.
Looking for context? Check out Nate Silver’s (yes, the same Nate Silver who uses probabilistic models I can barely spell let alone use to reliably predict some of the most accurate voter percentages in history) FiveThirtyEight Trump tracker. It’s a perpetual poll tracker that aggregates the results of current approval rating polls, and posts both each poll’s reported results, and their “adjusted” values. To explain those adjusted values requires a pointer and an easel… or -since those are impractical on the interwebs- just read this.
Bottom line: at this moment The Donald’s disapproval rating lies sullenly at 53.5%, while his approval rating lies beneath it, gasping for breath, at 40.6%.
Want more context? Richard Nixon never had approval numbers that low.
So, yeah. His numbers are on the rise. First, let’s not normalize that, okay mainstream media? And second, seriously, there’s pretty nowhere for those n numbers to go but up. Except for back to New York. For good. I hear Fall is lovely in Manhattan.