The NBC News/Marist Poll became the second poll today to show Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by double digits in the New York Democratic primary.
Clinton leads Sanders 55%-41%, and according to NBC News:
Clinton leads Sanders among African Americans (68 percent to 28 percent), those ages 45 and older (66 percent to 30 percent) and women (58 percent to 38 percent).
Sanders, meanwhile, holds the advantage among those younger than 45 (62 percent to 37 percent) and those who describe themselves as “very liberal” (59 percent to 40 percent). The two are running roughly even among men and Latinos.
Thirty percent of Sanders supporters in New York said that they would not vote for Hillary Clinton in November if she is the nominee, but those numbers should be taken with a serious grain of salt. Clinton is actually doing better with Sanders supporters than Obama did with her supporters during the ’08 campaign. In May of 2008, half of Clinton supporters polled said that they would not vote for Barack Obama if he were the Democratic nominee. Of course, the vast majority of those Clinton supporters did vote for President Obama as the party came together almost immediate after the Democratic primary ended.
Instead of worrying about who will vote for which candidate in November, what matters is the Democratic primary that is being contested in New York. Earlier on Monday, a new poll from Monmouth University showed Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by 12 points. Clinton has led Sanders in every recent New York poll by double digits.
Unlike the state of Michigan, the primary in New York is open only to registered Democratic voters. The problem for Sen. Sanders is the same old story. Hillary Clinton is blowing out Bernie Sanders with African-American voters. Clinton has been powered to large margin victories in numerous states where the Democratic electorate has a sizable African-American voting population. The Sanders weakness with African-American voters combined with Clinton running even with him among men suggests a trendline that is more indicative of a Clinton win than a Sanders upset.
For this reason, Thursday’s debate in New York is vital for Sen. Sanders. Clinton is in a great position in the state, but the debate will give Bernie Sanders a chance to appeal to New York voters. If Sanders fails to make up ground on former Sec. of State Clinton at the debate, it could be a big night for the Democratic frontrunner.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association